2834 Pankaw Ln · Valrico, FL 33596

$300,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,249 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2004 9,278 sqft lot $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Seller accepting CASH ONLY!! Short sale will take about 120 days to get response on offer from lien holders. Needs TLC. Great school district. Situated on an oversized corner lot with a privately fenced backyard, this home offers space, functionality, and abundant storage throughout. The large modern kitchen serves as the centerpiece of the home, opening to spacious living areas with soaring ceilings and plenty of natural light. Both the living room and family room are generously sized, providing flexible space for everyday living and entertaining. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including the primary suite featuring a double vanity, dedicated makeup/vanity area, and a large

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Large modern kitchen
• Soaring ceilings

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• PRIVATELY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• SOARING CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.21 acre (85.12 x 109) on paved/asphalt roads; Zoned PD
• HOA & community: Member of Buckhorn Preserve HOA; HOA dues $360 annually ($30/month); Street lights in the community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two stories; Faces east; Homestead property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with mature landscaping
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $830 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.86%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $8,188
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $91,624
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33596

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,490/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,556

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4351 Brandon Ridge Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	3.0	2448	$2,695	$1.10	2d	1	1.00mi
3632 Cold Creek Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	2379	$2,750	$1.16	4d	1	1.13mi
3415 Ranch Rd Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	3113	$4,425	$1.42	4d	1	1.17mi
3720 Hollow Wood Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,610	$1.20	3d	1	1.33mi
2815 Durant Trails Blvd Dover, FL	4.0	4.0	3458	$4,390	$1.27	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2026-03-06
   historical
4. 2026-01-29
   price $569,900
5. 2026-01-14
   price $469,900
6. 2026-01-14
   price $69,900
7. 2026-01-12
   price $479,900
8. 2026-01-12
   price $530,900
9. 2026-01-08
   price $498,900
10. 2026-01-06
    status Active
11. 2026-01-06
    price $508,900
12. 2026-01-06
    status Pending
13. 2025-12-29
    price $509,900
14. 2025-12-19
    listed $519,900 Active
15. 2016-11-11
    status Pending
16. 2016-11-06
    historical
17. 2016-10-13
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,490 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,490 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,490
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,463
• − Management: −$3,463
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $5,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $8,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valrico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #7901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valrico, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 65,118
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,757
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.33%
• Current HPI: 301.312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $569,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $469,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $479,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $530,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $498,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $508,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $509,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $519,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-13 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,490 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.