11438 S Riviera Dr · Sugarmill Woods, FL 34448

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1988 0.64 ac lot Est $186k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on market through no fault of the property! Appraised at $165,000 so now is your chance to take advantage of this home back on market due to failed financing. Welcome to Little Chaz- one of the untouched areas of Citrus County! This affordable 3/2 on . 68 acre is a great place for a weekend getaway or a fulltime home with no deed restrictions! Bring your boat, RV, raise your chickens in the little coop/pen area or put in a BIG veggie garden! Home has charming built in shelving in LR, wood burning fireplace in family room, inside laundry room, 2013 roof, newer HVAC unit, large 15 x 45 screened room with new indoor carpet, pump house/storage shed and bright, open floor plan. A clean 4

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Screened room
• Pump house

Tags

• BUILT IN SHELVING
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED ROOM
• PUMP HOUSE
• STORAGE SHED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide)
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Shed(s); Level lot; Paved road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Laminate counters
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds and window coverings; Window treatments; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Water heater; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.0% in Sugarmill Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Homosassa Elementary School (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 411 students, 78% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 307 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $900; list at $159k implies a 17567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.86%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,151
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7795 W Pam Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	14mo	$205,000	$131	66
7512 W Clearbrook Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+6%)	9mo	$165,000	$110	66
8190 W Chassahowitzka St	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,609 (+13%)	12mo	$350,000	$218	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $24,044
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $85,156
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34448

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,377

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18082 Parakeet Rd Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$3,100	$2.42	3d	1	1.17mi
7660 W Tropical Ln Homosassa, FL	3.0	1.0	1432	$1,975	$1.38	11d	1	1.35mi
10007 S Riviera Pt Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	952	$1,600	$1.68	3d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $159,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    status Active
11. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
12. 2026-03-19
    listed $159,000 Active
13. 1985-03-01
    soldstatus $900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $7,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,746
• After-tax cash flow: $7,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sugarmill Woods

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #20184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,797
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,817
• Household income: $45,916
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 113.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.27%
• Current HPI: 312.4302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-04-27 Pending — RACC
• 2026-03-19 Listed $159,000 RACC
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.