209 Little Bridge Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,913 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 6,882 sqft lot 2-car garage $167/sqft · 10% below area Est $356k · 10% under $155/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 20528547 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Diamond is a flawless floor plan balancing communal and private living areas. The great room is family central where dazzling sunlight illuminates your weekly Super Smash Bros tournament. Popcorn popped on the gleaming kitchen island refuels players between games. For more solitary pursuits, the home management center is the jewel in the crown of this design. Equipped with a backpack rack and cubbies, it’s the perfect spot for a homework center or home office. Adults will treasure time spent in the alluring primary suite while kids curl up with books in their large bedrooms. Serve dinner al fresco on the large, covered patio when it’s time to bring the family together again.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious living area
• Community ponds

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETS
• GENEROUS CENTER ISLAND
• PRIVATE OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY PONDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 931 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $234,319 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,287
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -10.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
280 Bright Alcove Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,866 (-2%)	0mo	$311,990	$167	81
292 Bright Alcove Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,768 (-8%)	3mo	$337,990	$191	74
1169 Little Hills Way	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-6%)	3mo	$326,990	$182	70
1220 Little Bridge Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,068 (+8%)	2mo	$323,490	$156	68
764 Grand Dale Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,877 (-2%)	3mo	$324,990	$173	67
1021 Lovely Day Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,691 (-12%)	3mo	$336,960	$199	58
1195 Little Hills Way	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,131 (+11%)	2mo	$344,990	$162	58
724 Grand Dale Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,029 (+6%)	2mo	$336,990	$166	55
746 Grand Dale Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+10%)	2mo	$374,990	$178	54
418 Silent Pond Park	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,699 (-11%)	3mo	$284,990	$168	45
726 Grand Dale Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,184 (+14%)	2mo	$348,990	$160	38
708 Tawny TURN	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,186 (+14%)	3mo	$394,990	$181	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-82,549
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-110,863
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 134 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.1 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $324,975 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 931
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,029/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,125

Max offer price $234,319

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-304	-5% $-394	+0% $-485	+5% $-576	+10% $-666
Rent	-10% $-683	-5% $-584	+0% $-485	+5% $-386	+10% $-287
Rate	-1.0pp $-324	-0.5pp $-404	base $-485	+0.5pp $-568	+1.0pp $-652

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	95d	1	0.04mi
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	89d	1	0.16mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	139d	1	0.53mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,997	$1.48	33d	1	0.53mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,997	$1.39	26d	1	0.53mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,500	$1.04	70d	1	0.64mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	59d	1	0.89mi
856 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,000	$1.20	20d	1	0.91mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	28d	1	0.91mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	5d	1	0.91mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	34d	1	0.92mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	98d	1	0.92mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	139d	1	0.94mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	50d	1	0.94mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	139d	1	0.96mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,446	$2.14	0d	21	0.96mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	89d	1	1.06mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	139d	1	1.06mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,195	$1.04	28d	1	1.06mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	89d	1	1.07mi
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	0d	1	1.11mi
609 Nature Stroll Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,995	$1.30	20d	1	1.11mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,130	$2.11	0d	63	1.11mi
566 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2447	$2,850	$1.16	0d	1	1.12mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	89d	1	1.14mi
248 Braves Way Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$3,000	$1.72	20d	1	1.19mi
553 New Dawn Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,050	$1.34	33d	1	1.21mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	120d	1	1.23mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	65d	1	1.25mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	139d	1	1.25mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	139d	1	1.27mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	120d	1	1.33mi
275 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1831	$1,889	$1.03	4d	1	1.42mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	139d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAMonthly HOA fee of $155HOA management: ElevonHOA amenities include full use of facilities and internet

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City sewerCity water
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelBuilt in 2023No accessibility features reportedNo property attachment (not attached)
• Construction: Built in 2023
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lotSidewalkSubdivision: Elevon Sec 2 Ph 2cNo barns

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenGas rangeMicrowaveTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (appliances listed under kitchen/utility)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $320,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $320,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $320,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $320,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $320,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $320,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $320,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $320,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    pricedays on market $320,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $327,500 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $327,500 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $327,500 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $327,500 Active 32 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $327,500 Active 31 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    price $327,500 Active 30 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $329,500 Active 30 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $329,500 Active 29 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $329,500 Active 28 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $329,500 Active 27 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $329,500 Active 26 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $329,500 Active 25 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $329,500 Active 24 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $329,500 Active 23 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $329,500 Active 22 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $329,500 Active 21 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $329,500 Active 20 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $329,500 Active 19 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $329,500 Active 18 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $329,500 Active 17 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $329,500 Active 16 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    price $329,500 Active 15 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $330,000 Active 15 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $330,000 Active 14 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 13 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $330,000 Active 11 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 10 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 9 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 8 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 5 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $330,000 Active 3 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on marketlisting id $330,000 Active 2 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 137 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 136 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 135 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,029 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,029 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,029
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$11,410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,738
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly new home in Lavon, TX, is move-in ready with excellent condition and a great floor plan. It offers a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates could further enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nesmith El D- TX #1,097/4,322 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAMonthly HOA fee of $155HOA management: ElevonHOA amenities include full use of facilities and internet

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City sewerCity water
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelBuilt in 2023No accessibility features reportedNo property attachment (not attached)
• Construction: Built in 2023
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lotSidewalkSubdivision: Elevon Sec 2 Ph 2cNo barns

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenGas rangeMicrowaveTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (appliances listed under kitchen/utility)

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-26 Listed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-13 Listed for Rent $2,400 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $319,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-02-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-02-03 Listed $374,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+28.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,029 · +28.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.