14089 Pioneer Bluffs Rd · Balch Springs, TX 75181

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2012 7,710 sqft lot $149/sqft · 11% below area Est $308k · 11% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very popular 4606 plan in Pioneer Bluffs!! Beautiful home! Gorgeous, huge kitchen with lots of cabinets. Ready for move-in!! Must see!! SEE SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE

Key facts

• Large living area
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• JETTED TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with quarterly fee ($60); HOA covers management fees; HOA managed by The Mac Group

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking
• Security: Video surveillance present (security camera excluded from sale)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Smart home features
• Construction: Built in 2012; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#487 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 590 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,487 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,661
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -10.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14104 Golden Pass Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+2%)	6mo	$293,500	$157	82
2133 Spring Mills Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+4%)	2mo	$315,000	$164	76
2012 Valley Falls Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,986 (+8%)	5mo	$339,999	$171	70
2124 Valley Falls Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+8%)	8mo	$334,000	$168	69
1757 Patrick Cir	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,839 (-0%)	2mo	$369,000	$201	65
2656 Cumberland Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-14%)	1mo	$272,500	$171	62
2200 Spring Mills Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,070 (+12%)	6mo	$314,990	$152	60
1714 Brooksview Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (-1%)	2mo	$289,900	$159	59
2668 Pioneer Bluffs Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (+9%)	6mo	$310,000	$155	59
12848 Hilltop Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,886 (+2%)	10mo	$309,000	$164	47
12802 Park Hill Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,624 (-12%)	6mo	$249,999	$154	44
12632 Ridgeside Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	11mo	$279,900	$141	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,706
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-105,080
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$715 /mo · $8,580/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $233,487

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2008 Valley Falls Ave Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,350	$1.40	1d	1	0.16mi
2636 Cumberland Trl Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2059	$2,900	$1.41	12d	1	0.24mi
2113 Spring Mills Rd Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	1643	$3,500	$2.13	7d	1	0.28mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	24d	1	0.46mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	20d	1	0.53mi
2800 Crockett Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	21d	1	0.58mi
2801 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,245	$1.16	24d	1	0.60mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	12d	1	0.69mi
12719 Bluffview Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,300	$1.29	43d	1	0.75mi
12931 Parker Ct Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,155	$1.61	7d	1	0.77mi
2829 Kerrville Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2349	$2,700	$1.15	4d	1	0.79mi
1801 Wilkinson Rd Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.0	1396	$1,550	$1.11	44d	1	0.82mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	43d	1	0.84mi
3521 Vicki Ln Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1639	$1,999	$1.22	43d	1	0.87mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	2d	1	0.88mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	7d	1	0.99mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	24d	1	1.00mi
1513 Colborne Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,045	$1.13	43d	1	1.00mi
1400 Long Shadow Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	7d	1	1.01mi
1626 Rancho Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2562	$2,419	$0.94	24d	1	1.06mi
3505 Vicki Ln Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	2399	$2,435	$1.02	43d	1	1.07mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,280	$1.08	20d	1	1.09mi
1128 Catalan Trl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	43d	1	1.28mi
1104 Ashland Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	7d	1	1.31mi
3808 Kenzie Ct Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,085	$1.23	1d	1	1.32mi
11815 Sunrise Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1719	$1,895	$1.10	5d	1	1.33mi
1101 La Esperanza Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,700	$1.59	1d	1	1.35mi
1029 Kory Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,950	$1.33	43d	1	1.35mi
13131 Rocky Ledge Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,883	$1.20	2d	1	1.37mi
1416 Poplar Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2052	$2,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.40mi
1005 Chelsea Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,200	$1.18	24d	1	1.42mi
1002 Majors Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,895	$1.16	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $275,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $320,000 Active 579-char remark
17. 2013-03-25
    historical 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Very popular 4606 plan in Pioneer Bluffs!! Beautiful home! Gorgeous, huge kitchen with lots of cabinets. Ready for move-in!! Must see!! SEE SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE

18. 2013-03-22
    soldstatus Closed 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Very popular 4606 plan in Pioneer Bluffs!! Beautiful home! Gorgeous, huge kitchen with lots of cabinets. Ready for move-in!! Must see!! SEE SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE

19. 2013-02-22
    status Pending 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Very popular 4606 plan in Pioneer Bluffs!! Beautiful home! Gorgeous, huge kitchen with lots of cabinets. Ready for move-in!! Must see!! SEE SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE

20. 2013-01-22
    listed $139,990 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Very popular 4606 plan in Pioneer Bluffs!! Beautiful home! Gorgeous, huge kitchen with lots of cabinets. Ready for move-in!! Must see!! SEE SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,580 · $715/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,580 · $715/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$8,580
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,499
• − Management: −$2,499
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,766
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Balch Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #9673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balch Springs, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 26,455
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2013-03-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-03-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-02-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-01-22 Listed $139,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,580 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.