7039 Kingston Cove Ln #306 · Willis, TX 77318

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Condo public records · 347 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $218/sqft · 20% below area Est $325k · 20% under · waterfront $315/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover lakeside living at its finest in this beautiful condo on the shores of stunning Lake Conroe. This versatile property is perfect as a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or a lucrative vacation rental. The unique layout offers the potential for dual living spaces with two separate entry doors, creating opportunities for flexibility and privacy. The main unit boasts breathtaking views of the lake, while the self-contained, studio-style suite features a kitchenette and a full bath—ideal for guests or rental income. Enjoy Lake Conroe’s vibrant lifestyle and amenities, including a sparkling pool, tennis courts, a park, and a full-service marina. Conveniently, water and trash services are included, simplifying your day-to-day living.

Key facts

• Lakeside living
• Full-service marina
• Tennis courts

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• DUAL LIVING SPACES
• STUDIO-STYLE SUITE
• TENNIS COURTS
• FULL-SERVICE MARINA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (6.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,747
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -20.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-55,575
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-85,571
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1387
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,534/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$315
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,838

Max offer price $242,487

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-20	+0% $-93	+5% $-167	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-201	+0% $-93	+5% $14	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-28	base $-93	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11931 Lakeview Manor Dr Unit 1545984P Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$4,843	$4.06	64d	1	1.02mi
801 River Rd Unit 116 Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,350	$1.39	48d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $315/mo · $3,780/yr condo

• Likely covers: watertrashpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 347 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $259,000 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $259,000 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $259,000 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $259,000 Active 342 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $259,000 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $259,000 Active 337 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $259,000 Active 336 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $259,000 Active 334 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $259,000 Active 332 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $259,000 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $259,000 Active 330 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $259,000 Active 329 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $259,000 Active 328 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 326 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 325 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 324 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $259,000 Active 323 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $259,000 Active 322 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 321 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 320 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $259,000 Active 319 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $259,000 Active 318 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $259,000 Active 317 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 315 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,000 Active 314 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,000 Active 313 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 312 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 311 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 310 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 309 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $259,000 Active 308 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $259,000 Active 307 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,000 Active 306 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $259,000 Active 305 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $259,000 Active 304 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $259,000 Active 302 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $259,000 Active 300 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $259,000 Active 299 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 296 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $259,000 Active 295 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 294 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,000 Active 293 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 291 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,000 Active 287 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 286 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 285 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 282 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 281 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 280 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,534 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,534 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$5,534
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,611
• − Management: −$2,611
• − HOA: −$3,780
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$5,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This waterfront condo is in excellent condition with a good location and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and offers a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both dock and boat ramp — improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records