10248 Carloway Hills Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$262,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2019 4,420 sqft lot $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * THE SELLER HAS AN ASSUMABLE VA LOAN AT A GREAT RATE * * Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage, located in the desirable Stoneridge at Ayersworth community. Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home features an open, airy layout with high ceilings and tile flooring throughout the main living areas. The thoughtfully designed floor plan allows the kitchen, dining, and living areas to connect effortlessly—ideal for entertaining or relaxed everyday living. The kitchen is equipped with warm wood cabinetry, sleek black appliances and a convenient breakfast bar/island. Sliding glass doors extend the living space outdoors, leading to a fully fenced backyard that offers privacy and room to unwind or entertain. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat with an en suite bathroom, while two additional spacious bedrooms are situated near a full guest bath. A dedicated laundry room adds to the home’s practicality, and the 2-car garage provides ample parking and extra storage space. Residents of Stoneridge at Ayersworth enjoy access to an impressive lineup of resort-style amenities, including a sparkling swimming pool, modern clubhouse with fitness center, basketball court, playground, dog park, picnic pavilion, and scenic walking trails. Conveniently located near Big Bend Road, Hwy 301, and I-75, this community offers easy access to Brandon, Tampa, shopping, dining, and even the Gulf Coast beaches. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant, amenity-rich neighborhood, this home truly offers the perfect blend of lifestyle, convenience, and comfort.

Key facts

• Open airy layout
• Black appliances
• Warm wood cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN AIRY LAYOUT
• HIGH CEILINGS
• TILE FLOORING
• WARM WOOD CABINETRY
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-51,060
• Equity at exit: $46,760

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-76,689
• Equity at exit: $36,094

Cash invested: $73,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax from tax record: −$612 /mo · $7,345/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $237,676

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-64	+0% $-138	+5% $-212	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-236	+0% $-138	+5% $-40	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-71	base $-138	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,500
• Closing costs: $7,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	7d	1	0.14mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,250	$1.27	19d	1	0.14mi
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	26d	1	0.30mi
14525 Scottburgh Glen Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,300	$1.94	24d	1	0.33mi
15628 Aurora Lake Cir Wimauma, FL	2.0	2.0	1747	$2,200	$1.26	26d	1	0.95mi
14471 Stagedoor Johnny Pl Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,344	$2.06	0d	20	1.11mi
14452 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,250	$1.32	14d	1	1.15mi
14409 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,800	$1.08	26d	1	1.18mi
14442 Editors Note St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,100	$1.23	7d	1	1.21mi
14339 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,350	$1.38	24d	1	1.22mi
10324 Geese Trail Cir Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	1.24mi
15416 Gopher Trop Pl Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	1771	$2,300	$1.30	26d	1	1.29mi
10124 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,150	$1.60	1d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $262,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $262,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $262,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $262,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $262,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $262,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $262,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $262,000 1645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1645 chars)

    * * THE SELLER HAS AN ASSUMABLE VA LOAN AT A GREAT RATE * * Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage, located in the desirable Stoneridge at Ayersworth community. Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home features an open, airy layout with high ceilings and tile flooring throughout the main living areas. The thoughtfully designed floor plan allows the kitchen, dining, and living areas to connect effortlessly—ideal for entertaining or relaxed everyday living. The kitchen is equipped with warm wood cabinetry, sleek black appliances and a convenient breakfast bar/island. Sliding glass doors extend the living space outdoors, leading to a fully fenced backyard that offers privacy and room to unwind or entertain. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat with an en suite bathroom, while two additional spacious bedrooms are situated near a full guest bath. A dedicated laundry room adds to the home’s practicality, and the 2-car garage provides ample parking and extra storage space. Residents of Stoneridge at Ayersworth enjoy access to an impressive lineup of resort-style amenities, including a sparkling swimming pool, modern clubhouse with fitness center, basketball court, playground, dog park, picnic pavilion, and scenic walking trails. Conveniently located near Big Bend Road, Hwy 301, and I-75, this community offers easy access to Brandon, Tampa, shopping, dining, and even the Gulf Coast beaches. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant, amenity-rich neighborhood, this home truly offers the perfect blend of lifestyle, convenience, and comfort.

17. 2026-03-23
    price $270,500 1645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1645 chars)

    * * THE SELLER HAS AN ASSUMABLE VA LOAN AT A GREAT RATE * * Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage, located in the desirable Stoneridge at Ayersworth community. Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home features an open, airy layout with high ceilings and tile flooring throughout the main living areas. The thoughtfully designed floor plan allows the kitchen, dining, and living areas to connect effortlessly—ideal for entertaining or relaxed everyday living. The kitchen is equipped with warm wood cabinetry, sleek black appliances and a convenient breakfast bar/island. Sliding glass doors extend the living space outdoors, leading to a fully fenced backyard that offers privacy and room to unwind or entertain. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat with an en suite bathroom, while two additional spacious bedrooms are situated near a full guest bath. A dedicated laundry room adds to the home’s practicality, and the 2-car garage provides ample parking and extra storage space. Residents of Stoneridge at Ayersworth enjoy access to an impressive lineup of resort-style amenities, including a sparkling swimming pool, modern clubhouse with fitness center, basketball court, playground, dog park, picnic pavilion, and scenic walking trails. Conveniently located near Big Bend Road, Hwy 301, and I-75, this community offers easy access to Brandon, Tampa, shopping, dining, and even the Gulf Coast beaches. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant, amenity-rich neighborhood, this home truly offers the perfect blend of lifestyle, convenience, and comfort.

18. 2026-03-02
    price $277,500 1645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1645 chars)

    * * THE SELLER HAS AN ASSUMABLE VA LOAN AT A GREAT RATE * * Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage, located in the desirable Stoneridge at Ayersworth community. Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home features an open, airy layout with high ceilings and tile flooring throughout the main living areas. The thoughtfully designed floor plan allows the kitchen, dining, and living areas to connect effortlessly—ideal for entertaining or relaxed everyday living. The kitchen is equipped with warm wood cabinetry, sleek black appliances and a convenient breakfast bar/island. Sliding glass doors extend the living space outdoors, leading to a fully fenced backyard that offers privacy and room to unwind or entertain. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat with an en suite bathroom, while two additional spacious bedrooms are situated near a full guest bath. A dedicated laundry room adds to the home’s practicality, and the 2-car garage provides ample parking and extra storage space. Residents of Stoneridge at Ayersworth enjoy access to an impressive lineup of resort-style amenities, including a sparkling swimming pool, modern clubhouse with fitness center, basketball court, playground, dog park, picnic pavilion, and scenic walking trails. Conveniently located near Big Bend Road, Hwy 301, and I-75, this community offers easy access to Brandon, Tampa, shopping, dining, and even the Gulf Coast beaches. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant, amenity-rich neighborhood, this home truly offers the perfect blend of lifestyle, convenience, and comfort.

19. 2026-01-16
    listed $285,900 Active 1645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1645 chars)

    * * THE SELLER HAS AN ASSUMABLE VA LOAN AT A GREAT RATE * * Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage, located in the desirable Stoneridge at Ayersworth community. Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home features an open, airy layout with high ceilings and tile flooring throughout the main living areas. The thoughtfully designed floor plan allows the kitchen, dining, and living areas to connect effortlessly—ideal for entertaining or relaxed everyday living. The kitchen is equipped with warm wood cabinetry, sleek black appliances and a convenient breakfast bar/island. Sliding glass doors extend the living space outdoors, leading to a fully fenced backyard that offers privacy and room to unwind or entertain. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat with an en suite bathroom, while two additional spacious bedrooms are situated near a full guest bath. A dedicated laundry room adds to the home’s practicality, and the 2-car garage provides ample parking and extra storage space. Residents of Stoneridge at Ayersworth enjoy access to an impressive lineup of resort-style amenities, including a sparkling swimming pool, modern clubhouse with fitness center, basketball court, playground, dog park, picnic pavilion, and scenic walking trails. Conveniently located near Big Bend Road, Hwy 301, and I-75, this community offers easy access to Brandon, Tampa, shopping, dining, and even the Gulf Coast beaches. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant, amenity-rich neighborhood, this home truly offers the perfect blend of lifestyle, convenience, and comfort.

20. 2026-01-03
    historical
21. 2025-09-25
    price $289,900
22. 2025-09-16
    price $294,900
23. 2025-08-01
    listed $299,900 Active
24. 2019-06-26
    soldstatus $189,690 Sold
25. 2019-05-23
    status Pending
26. 2019-05-14
    price $189,690
27. 2019-04-04
    listed $189,190 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,345 · $612/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,345 · $612/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,676
• − Property taxes: −$7,345
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$7,622
• Taxable loss: −$5,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+38.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $262,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $270,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $277,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $285,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-26 Sold (MLS) $189,690 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-14 Price Changed $189,690 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-04 Listed $189,190 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,345 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.