0075 Prospector Rd Unit 8409 Summer Interest 10 · Aspen, CO 81611

$49,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,354 sqft · Condo · 973 Days on market

Built 2001 $36/sqft · at area comps Est $50k · at est. $1969/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Summer Interest #10 gets you two summer weeks, one winter week and one float week each year. In the sweet spot of the rotation! March 7-14 and August 8-22, 2026. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, floor plan, and calendar.

Key facts

• $1,969 HOA
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($48k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,000/mo this rent would consume 116% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 973 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 973 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 16.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 104.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 350.92%
• DSCR: 16.61
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,453
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -2.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.75×
• Total profit: $325,836
• Equity at exit: $44,143

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 64.12×
• Total profit: $865,960
• Equity at exit: $95,196

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$1,969
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,680
• Net cashflow: $4,012

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,921

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,969 · $23,628/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 973 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 972 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 971 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 970 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 969 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 967 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 966 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 963 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 962 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 961 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 958 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 956 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 955 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 954 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 953 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    price $49,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Summer Interest #10 gets you two summer weeks, one winter week and one float week each year. In the sweet spot of the rotation! March 7-14 and August 8-22, 2026. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, floor plan, and calendar.

17. 2025-10-14
    price $55,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Summer Interest #10 gets you two summer weeks, one winter week and one float week each year. In the sweet spot of the rotation! March 7-14 and August 8-22, 2026. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, floor plan, and calendar.

18. 2024-10-17
    price $57,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Summer Interest #10 gets you two summer weeks, one winter week and one float week each year. In the sweet spot of the rotation! March 7-14 and August 8-22, 2026. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, floor plan, and calendar.

19. 2024-03-11
    soldstatus $49,000 Closed 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Well priced winter interest 1 gets you two ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. April 6-20 and May 25- June 1, 2024. December 7-21, 2024 and June 7-14, 2025. Christmas 2025 and New Years the following year! All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit.

20. 2024-02-15
    status Pending 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Well priced winter interest 1 gets you two ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. April 6-20 and May 25- June 1, 2024. December 7-21, 2024 and June 7-14, 2025. Christmas 2025 and New Years the following year! All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit.

21. 2024-02-12
    price $49,000 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Well priced winter interest 1 gets you two ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. April 6-20 and May 25- June 1, 2024. December 7-21, 2024 and June 7-14, 2025. Christmas 2025 and New Years the following year! All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit.

22. 2024-01-14
    historical $700
23. 2023-12-01
    listed $59,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Well priced winter interest 1 gets you two ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. April 6-20 and May 25- June 1, 2024. December 7-21, 2024 and June 7-14, 2025. Christmas 2025 and New Years the following year! All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit.

24. 2023-11-18
    listed $700
25. 2023-10-20
    listed $59,000 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Residence 8409 is a top floor two bedroom 2 1/2 bath residence in the Elk Horn Lodge with a balcony overlooking Highlands Village. Summer Interest #10 gets you two summer weeks, one winter week and one float week each year. In the sweet spot of the rotation! March 7-14 and August 8-22, 2026. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities. Trading privileges to other Ritz residence clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and 3rd Home give you a myriad of exchange opportunities. *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, floor plan, and calendar.

26. 2022-08-02
    soldstatus $50,900 Closed
27. 2022-07-01
    status Pending
28. 2022-06-15
    price $59,000
29. 2022-05-24
    soldstatus $47,500 Closed
30. 2022-05-04
    status Pending
31. 2021-11-30
    listed $65,000 Active
32. 2021-11-18
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $95,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,680
• − Management: −$7,680
• − HOA: −$23,628
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $51,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,446
• After-tax cash flow: $35,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-42.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $49,000 AGMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $55,000 AGMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $57,000 AGMLS
• 2024-03-11 Sold (MLS) $49,000 AGMLS
• 2024-02-15 Pending — AGMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $49,000 AGMLS
• 2024-01-14 Rental Removed $700 AGMLS
• 2023-12-01 Listed $59,000 AGMLS
• 2023-11-18 Listed for Rent $700 AGMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $59,000 AGMLS
• 2022-08-02 Sold (MLS) $50,900 AGMLS
• 2022-07-01 Pending — AGMLS
• 2022-06-15 Price Changed $59,000 AGMLS
• 2022-05-24 Sold (MLS) $47,500 AGMLS
• 2022-05-04 Pending — AGMLS
• 2021-11-30 Listed $65,000 AGMLS
• 2021-11-18 Listed $85,000 AGMLS