1631 3rd Ave · Arnold, PA 15068

$64,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1920 2,639 sqft lot Est $96k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1631 3rd Avenue in Arnold presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking for value in the Alle-Kiski Valley. The property features a practical layout with comfortable living space, multiple bedrooms, and a floor plan that works well for long-term rental or owner-occupancy. Conveniently located near Route 28 and just minutes from New Kensington and surrounding business districts, the home offers easy access to shopping, dining, and major commuting routes into Pittsburgh and the greater Allegheny Valley area. The location continues to support steady rental demand from tenants seeking affordable housing with convenient regional access. With the potential for stable rental income

Key facts

• Practical layout
• Conveniently located
• 2,639 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRACTICAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,212 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• New Kensington-Arnold SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #483 of 539 in PA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 415 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $62,080 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.73%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,444
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1631 3rd Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,026 (0%)	10mo	$30,571	$30	92
523 Ridge Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-0%)	15mo	$7,500	$7	53
1909 Kimball Ave	0.66mi	2/1.5	1,080 (+5%)	12mo	$130,000	$120	48
2108 Woodmont Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+12%)	9mo	$108,000	$94	43
1917 Kimball Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	974 (-5%)	13mo	$112,000	$115	43
824 Front St	0.52mi	2/1.5	1,170 (+14%)	9mo	$100,000	$85	43
1504 Woodmont Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	910 (-11%)	14mo	$103,000	$113	37
605 Freeport Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+12%)	24mo	$130,000	$114	36
2024 Kimball Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (+12%)	10mo	$30,571	$27	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $16,695
• Equity at exit: $9,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $46,088
• Equity at exit: $5,534

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15068

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $560

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1330 Woodmont Ave New Kensington, PA	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	10d	1	0.54mi
542 5th Ave Unit 1 New Kensington, PA	2.0	1.0	890	$825	$0.93	23d	1	1.18mi
915 Evans St New Kensington, PA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,295	$1.12	43d	1	1.20mi
1134 Strawn Ave New Kensington, PA	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,500	$1.38	43d	1	1.35mi
300 Craigdell Rd New Kensington, PA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,130	$0.87	1d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $64,000 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $4,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,100
• After-tax cash flow: $4,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Kensington-Arnold SD
• NCES district ID: 4216740
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,386
• Composite: 19.26/100
• National rank: #8805
• State rank: #483 of 539 in PA

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1212
• US rank: #14318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arnold, PA
• County: Westmoreland County · 183,777 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,203
• Household income: $63,426
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 967.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 342,555 people
• By 2030: 331,717 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 304,976 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 277,444 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 224,607 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 171,084 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Subsaharan African 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+31.3 2012: R+23.7 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.50%
• Current HPI: 305.926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B