Lennox Plan · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$264,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lennox offers 1,482 sq. ft. of modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Its open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and great room for effortless entertaining, while the upstairs primary suite and laundry add everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 93 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $259,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Lennox); Address: Middleburg, FL
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,482

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Lennox; New construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,688.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-995/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Oakleaf High School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,371 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $228,044 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,688
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3467 Lynn Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+0%)	15mo	$262,500	$176	65
3305 New Beginnings Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-9%)	5mo	$240,000	$178	64
3548 Grayson Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+5%)	13mo	$287,000	$184	62
762 Celebration Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,637 (+10%)	14mo	$289,000	$177	55
916 Rooster Hollow Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+7%)	10mo	$348,000	$219	54
3468 Kindlewood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+7%)	10mo	$362,000	$228	52
724 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,695 (+14%)	1mo	$291,000	$172	48
3396 Green Oaks Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-7%)	14mo	$230,000	$166	47
628 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-14%)	18mo	$265,000	$208	44
3248 Roundabout Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-14%)	21mo	$268,000	$211	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,629
• Equity at exit: $40,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-45,676
• Equity at exit: $23,577

Cash invested: $76,353 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,280 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,090/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $260,688

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $11	+0% $-83	+5% $-177	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-173	+0% $-83	+5% $7	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-14	base $-83	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,172
• Closing costs: $8,181
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$2,299	$1.42	3d	121	0.09mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	25d	1	0.41mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	0d	1	0.47mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,258	$2.16	4d	10	0.65mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	19d	1	1.18mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,100	$1.23	25d	1	1.27mi
3764 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	1.40mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	4d	2	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,990 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,275
• − Property taxes: −$4,090
• − Insurance: −$1,363
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − Depreciation: −$7,933
• Taxable loss: −$5,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained living space with potential for further value through landscaping and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can be a selling point

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can be a selling point ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B