121 Harbour Ln · Cape Royale, TX 77331

$81,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1978 2,365 sqft lot $124/sqft · 43% below area Est $143k · 43% under $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS PROPERTY IS A CORNER LOT, WITH A PATIO/DECK. THE FRONT ENTRANCE HAS FRENCH DOORS, STEPPING INTO THE LIVING AREA WITH AN OPEN CONCEPT TO THE KITCHEN/DINETTE AREA. KITCHEN IS EQUIPPED WITH A FULL SIZE FRIDGE, DISHWASHER, FREESTANDING RANGE, DOUBLE STAINLESS STEEL SINK AND LOTS OF CABINETS. DOWN THE HALLWAY ARE THE TWO BEDROOMS WITH THE ONE BATH (TUB/SHOWER COMBO) AND A SINGLE VANITY SINK. BUYERS WILL ENTERTAIN ALL OFFERS...IF YOU ARE WORKING WITH AN AGENT, HAVE YOUR AGENT CONTACT THE LISTING BROKERAGE WITH ANY QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE OR IF YOU WISH TO SCHEDULE A SHOWING.

Key facts

• Full size fridge
• Patio deck
• Open concept

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PATIO DECK
• FRENCH DOORS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• FULL SIZE FRIDGE
• DOUBLE STAINLESS STEEL SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.5% in Cape Royale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,203 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $566 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,986 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.93%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,117
• List price: $81,900
• Delta: -42.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $13,456
• Equity at exit: $12,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $46,236
• Equity at exit: $7,081

Cash invested: $22,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $81,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,475
• Closing costs: $2,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $81,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $81,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $81,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $81,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $81,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $81,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $81,900 Active 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    THIS PROPERTY IS A CORNER LOT, WITH A PATIO/DECK. THE FRONT ENTRANCE HAS FRENCH DOORS, STEPPING INTO THE LIVING AREA WITH AN OPEN CONCEPT TO THE KITCHEN/DINETTE AREA. KITCHEN IS EQUIPPED WITH A FULL SIZE FRIDGE, DISHWASHER, FREESTANDING RANGE, DOUBLE STAINLESS STEEL SINK AND LOTS OF CABINETS. DOWN THE HALLWAY ARE THE TWO BEDROOMS WITH THE ONE BATH (TUB/SHOWER COMBO) AND A SINGLE VANITY SINK. BUYERS WILL ENTERTAIN ALL OFFERS...IF YOU ARE WORKING WITH AN AGENT, HAVE YOUR AGENT CONTACT THE LISTING BROKERAGE WITH ANY QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE OR IF YOU WISH TO SCHEDULE A SHOWING.

18. 2020-01-10
    soldstatus
19. 2000-08-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$32/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,588
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$2,383
• Taxable income: $3,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$956
• After-tax cash flow: $4,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cape Royale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1203
• US rank: #21032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Royale, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $81,900 HARMLS
• 2020-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.