Jasmine Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$255,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · Townhouse · 361 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Large island
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• GREAT ROOM PLAN
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (last modified 2026-05-21)
• Financial info: List price $255,759

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Jasmine); Located in Parrish, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,404 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Jasmine (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $255,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $252,720.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $256k).
• Recommended offer: $225k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,279 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13219 Stable Pl	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	2mo	$249,999	$178	88
13181 Forge Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,373 (-2%)	1mo	$219,999	$160	81
13154 Stable Pl	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+11%)	3mo	$289,999	$186	68
13228 Stable Pl	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+11%)	2mo	$299,000	$192	68
13173 Forge Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,219 (-13%)	0mo	$219,999	$180	64
14024 Textile Run	0.22mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,219 (-13%)	0mo	$211,000	$173	63
13231 Forge Ave	0.19mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,219 (-13%)	3mo	$229,999	$189	62
14012 Textile Run	0.21mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,219 (-13%)	2mo	$219,999	$180	62
13207 Forge Ave	0.17mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,205 (-14%)	4mo	$229,999	$191	60
14004 Textile Run	0.20mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,205 (-14%)	2mo	$229,000	$190	60
14016 Textile Run	0.21mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,219 (-13%)	5mo	$219,999	$180	59
14028 Textile Run	0.22mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,219 (-13%)	5mo	$219,999	$180	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,706
• Equity at exit: $37,681

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-30,794
• Equity at exit: $21,851

Cash invested: $70,762 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,791/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,211

Max offer price $252,720

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,180
• Closing costs: $7,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	2d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,999 Active 361 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,999 Active 360 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,999 Active 359 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,999 Active 358 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,999 Active 356 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,999 Active 355 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,999 Active 353 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,999 Active 352 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,999 Active 351 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,999 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,999 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,999 Active 345 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,999 Active 344 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,999 Active 343 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,156
• − Property taxes: −$3,791
• − Insurance: −$1,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,481
• − Management: −$2,481
• − Depreciation: −$7,352
• Taxable loss: −$516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $3,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B