311 42nd Street Ct W · Memphis, FL 34221

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1980 8,320 sqft lot Est $266k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely adorable and really well kept home in desirable Palmetto Point. Stone woodburning fireplace is the living room focal pt. High vaulted ceilings. Indoor laundry area with full size washer and dryer included. Screened Porch overlooks quite privateback yard with shed. Newly redone master bathroom. Split bedroom plan. Pretty kitchen features a large breakfast bar and Glass top electric range. This is NOT A SHORT SALE. Community features boat ramp which can be accessed by being a member of the Palmetto Point Community organization.

Key facts

• 8,320 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $205k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 41st St W	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,196 (+4%)	2mo	$275,000	$230	84
516 45th Street Ct W	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,129 (-2%)	2mo	$345,000	$306	82
4127 3rd Ave W	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,188 (+3%)	11mo	$179,000	$151	80
3831 3rd Ave W	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-9%)	4mo	$200,000	$190	72
423 46th St W	0.25mi	2/1.5	1,207 (+5%)	10mo	$158,000	$131	70
723 45th Street Ct W	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,092 (-5%)	4mo	$305,000	$279	69
615 48th St W	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (-5%)	4mo	$111,000	$102	64
324 43rd Street Blvd W	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (-14%)	8mo	$295,000	$299	61
3808 6th Ave W	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (+8%)	9mo	$287,800	$231	58
4208 3rd Avenue Blvd E	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+15%)	3mo	$197,000	$149	54
5004 3rd Ave W	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,053 (-9%)	5mo	$290,000	$275	54
603 48th St W	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	987 (-14%)	1mo	$239,000	$242	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,722
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-26,440
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,381/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	0.34mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	23d	1	0.46mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.56mi
3222 6th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,185	$1.55	23d	1	0.79mi
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	23d	1	1.04mi
2615 9th Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,200	$1.61	23d	1	1.20mi
3115 Live Oak Ln #30 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1253	$3,695	$2.95	23d	1	1.23mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,800	$1.70	10d	1	1.37mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	23d	1	1.42mi
2211 11th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,195	$1.71	16d	1	1.49mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	23d	1	1.49mi
2320 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #211 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$2,500	$2.56	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 377-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $205,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,381 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,381 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,381
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $2,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Memphis, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+346.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-17 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-23 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-22 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-02 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-01 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1993-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1980-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,381 · +376.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.