4918 Marcona Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$164,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot Est $171k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$12,000 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn North - Windrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a municipal utility district; Green/energy-efficient features include upgraded insulation, windows, doors, thermostat, water heater, low-flow commode, enhanced air filtration, appliances, rain/freeze sensors
• Financial info: Financing options: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Association manages grounds maintenance and facilities; Annual association fee (managed by Insight)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Concrete curbs; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; New construction (2026, incomplete)
• Construction: Fiber cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Lot dimensions approximately 45 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Natural stone or granite countertops; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning (electric, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available
• Laundry & utility: Mechanical fresh air (energy-efficient feature)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,049 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.63%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,478
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4914 Marcona Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,033 (0%)	1mo	$170,999	$166	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,262
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,664
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Princeton Xrds Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,914	$1.95	1d	23	0.88mi
250 N Boorman Ln Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,619	$4.93	1d	1	1.16mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,733	$1.80	1d	9	1.29mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,799	$1.87	43d	23	1.29mi
1525 Farm to Market Road 982 Princeton, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1551	$2,332	$1.50	1d	54	1.34mi
899 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,780	$1.80	1d	14	1.35mi
843 Ozark Path Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,100	$1.68	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $164,999
3. 2026-05-05
   status Active
4. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-04
   price $169,999
6. 2026-02-07
   listed $176,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$712
• After-tax cash flow: $4,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $164,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $169,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $176,999 NTREIS