2223 Fairgreen Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1975 8,616 sqft lot Est $260k · 9% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious one-story in Quail Valley East ready for immediate move-in. Pristine and well cared for home offers spacious living areas, a covered rear screened porch and large backyard with fruit trees. Convenient access in all directions to major freeways or tollways. Perfect home for first time home buyers or investors - Come live where you play!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Convenient access
• One-story

Tags

• ONE-STORY
• COVERED REAR SCREENED PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• FRUIT TREES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $330 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,061 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,652
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2726 Valley Forest Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,937 (+4%)	4mo	$298,000	$154	78
3019 Quail Valley East Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,868 (0%)	4mo	$264,900	$142	78
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,838 (-2%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	72
3131 Quail Valley East Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,997 (+7%)	2mo	$289,500	$145	71
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-7%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	58
2503 Ashmont Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,139 (+14%)	0mo	$220,000	$103	56
2818 Eaglerock Cir	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,146 (+15%)	2mo	$289,000	$135	55
2914 Quail Valley East Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,146 (+15%)	2mo	$299,000	$139	54
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-10%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	52
2207 Cottonwood Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-9%)	4mo	$225,000	$132	49
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (+9%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	44
2850 Creekway Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,072 (+11%)	5mo	$269,000	$130	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-28,376
• Equity at exit: $61,832

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,497
• Equity at exit: $69,389

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,121/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,340

Max offer price $207,061

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	43d	1	0.27mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	16d	1	0.37mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	43d	1	0.67mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	43d	1	0.93mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	20d	1	0.95mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	12d	1	1.02mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	1.20mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	12d	1	1.28mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	24d	1	1.30mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	21d	1	1.33mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.41mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	12d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-03
   price $235,000
4. 2025-12-30
   listed $254,000 Active
5. 2022-02-21
   historical
6. 2022-02-09
   status Active
7. 2022-02-03
   price $2,270
8. 2022-01-30
   status Pending
9. 2021-12-21
   listed $245,000 Active
10. 2012-10-04
    soldstatus
11. 1999-11-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,121 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,121 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$5,121
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-02-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $2,270 RENT.
• 2022-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-21 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2012-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,121 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.