5010 Birch Dr · Indian River Estates, FL 34982

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2012 9,938 sqft lot Est $318k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute cozy home in the heart of Indian River Estates! NO HOA. Built in 2012, this home has many upgrades and amenities throughout including stainless steel appliances, private screened porch and beautiful nature filled rear yard with plenty of room for a pool. Walk across the street to gorgeous park with scenic lakes, patio tables, walking & bike trails and playground. Centrally located close to restaurants, highways and shopping.

Key facts

• Walking bike trails
• Private screen porch
• Playground

Tags

• PRIVATE SCREEN PORCH
• TREE FILLED REAR YARD
• WALKING BIKE TRAILS
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Detached carport; Driveway; Covered parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property; Faces north; Solar energy generation
• Construction: Stucco and CBS construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Porch; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Kitchen island; Blinds; Sliding windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#653 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,246/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1086% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $315k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,646 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,898
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5505 Myrtle Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-1%)	1mo	$369,900	$307	69
5207 Birch Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-10%)	4mo	$285,000	$261	69
5409 Sunset Blvd	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-3%)	5mo	$255,000	$215	62
5406 Sunset Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+8%)	1mo	$255,000	$193	61
4711 Myrtle Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,194 (-2%)	21mo	$285,000	$239	60
5502 Hickory Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,174 (-4%)	11mo	$290,000	$247	53
5406 Myrtle Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+10%)	23mo	$350,000	$262	41
5413 Palm Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,066 (-12%)	24mo	$280,000	$263	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-46,798
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,234
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34982

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,036/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $298,263

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5300 Seagrape Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	23d	1	0.36mi
5315 Hickory Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,045	$1.46	23d	1	0.41mi
330 Borraclough St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,175	$1.55	13d	1	0.75mi
341 Ashley St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$2,460	$2.18	23d	1	0.82mi
4210 Gator Trace Cir Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1316	$2,100	$1.60	13d	1	0.84mi
352 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	23d	1	0.87mi
355 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.5	1118	$2,500	$2.24	23d	1	0.89mi
203 Melton Dr Unit B Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	23d	1	1.03mi
4215 Gator Trace Ave Unit G Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	23d	1	1.18mi
4166 Gator Trace Villas Cir Unit B Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,200	$1.65	23d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    price $315,000
18. 2026-05-06
    price $339,000
19. 2026-04-26
    listed $349,000 Active
20. 2026-04-24
    historical
21. 2026-04-08
    listed $359,000 Active
22. 2026-03-31
    historical
23. 2026-01-11
    price $330,000
24. 2025-11-30
    price $355,000
25. 2025-11-01
    price $358,000
26. 2025-09-26
    listed $359,999 Active
27. 2014-10-20
    historical
28. 2010-07-09
    soldstatus $49,500
29. 2010-06-07
    historical
30. 2010-05-14
    listed $49,900
31. 2006-01-12
    soldstatus $189,900
32. 2006-01-06
    soldstatus $189,900
33. 2005-07-06
    listed $189,900
34. 2005-07-06
    listed $189,900
35. 2002-04-22
    soldstatus $74,900
36. 2002-04-17
    soldstatus $74,900
37. 2002-02-13
    historical
38. 2002-02-01
    listed $73,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,036 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,579/yr (+$132/mo · 152.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,036
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,626
• After-tax cash flow: $489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian River Estates

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian River Estates, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 27,447
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,143
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1086.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.47%
• Current HPI: 397.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+326.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $315,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $339,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $349,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $359,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $358,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $359,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-20 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2010-07-09 Sold (MLS) $49,500 Beaches MLS
• 2010-06-07 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2010-05-14 Listed $49,900 Beaches MLS
• 2006-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2006-01-06 Sold (MLS) $189,900 MCRTC
• 2005-07-06 Listed $189,900 MCRTC
• 2005-07-06 Listed $189,900 Beaches MLS
• 2002-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 2002-04-17 Sold (MLS) $74,900 Beaches MLS
• 2002-02-13 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2002-02-01 Listed $73,900 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,036 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.