14950 W Mountain View Blvd #5206 · Surprise, AZ 85374

$195,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Condo public records · 247 Days on market

Built 1998 $234/sqft · 18% below area Est $237k · 18% under $517/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Settle right into the resort lifestyle with this fully FURNISHED Ventana with a 2004 EZGO golf cart! This one-bedroom, one-bath unit is updated and move-in ready, featuring Pergo laminate flooring (2020), newer bedroom carpet (2021), a replaced AC unit, and all appliances included, complemented by a newer water heater (2018) and filtered kitchen water. Enjoy your own private La Solana amenities--including a heated beach-entry pool, spa, and clubhouse--plus full access to the world-class Sun City Grand amenities. This pet-friendly (one-pet restriction), rental-allowed community is perfectly situated near restaurants, grocers, and medical facilities, and comes with one assigned covered parking space (#162).

Key facts

• Updated
• Replaced ac unit
• Newer bedroom carpet

Tags

• UPDATED
• PERGO LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWER BEDROOM CARPET
• REPLACED AC UNIT
• FILTERED KITCHEN WATER
• HEATED BEACH-ENTRY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (13.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $195k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,453 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,865
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -17.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-46,495
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-73,399
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,294/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$517
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $168,453

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-95	+0% $-150	+5% $-205	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-229	+0% $-150	+5% $-71	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-101	base $-150	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,230	$2.91	0d	3	0.01mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,388	$3.12	45d	3	0.01mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,450	$3.20	0d	2	0.01mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,375	$1.02	6d	8	0.48mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,595	$1.33	0d	6	0.48mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,550	$1.15	13d	9	0.48mi
15032 W Jackpot Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	923	$1,600	$1.73	26d	1	0.76mi
17927 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,288	$1.31	0d	8	0.76mi
14155 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,243	$1.45	0d	12	0.85mi
14817 W Juneberry Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	26d	1	1.02mi
13635 W Utica Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1084	$2,750	$2.54	45d	1	1.38mi
16945 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,475	$1.49	0d	22	1.43mi
14300 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	946	$1,948	$2.06	14d	2	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $517 · $6,204/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $195,000 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Settle right into the resort lifestyle with this fully FURNISHED Ventana with a 2004 EZGO golf cart! This one-bedroom, one-bath unit is updated and move-in ready, featuring Pergo laminate flooring (2020), newer bedroom carpet (2021), a replaced AC unit, and all appliances included, complemented by a newer water heater (2018) and filtered kitchen water. Enjoy your own private La Solana amenities--including a heated beach-entry pool, spa, and clubhouse--plus full access to the world-class Sun City Grand amenities. This pet-friendly (one-pet restriction), rental-allowed community is perfectly situated near restaurants, grocers, and medical facilities, and comes with one assigned covered parking space (#162).

16. 2026-03-14
    price $215,000 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Settle right into the resort lifestyle with this fully FURNISHED Ventana with a 2004 EZGO golf cart! This one-bedroom, one-bath unit is updated and move-in ready, featuring Pergo laminate flooring (2020), newer bedroom carpet (2021), a replaced AC unit, and all appliances included, complemented by a newer water heater (2018) and filtered kitchen water. Enjoy your own private La Solana amenities--including a heated beach-entry pool, spa, and clubhouse--plus full access to the world-class Sun City Grand amenities. This pet-friendly (one-pet restriction), rental-allowed community is perfectly situated near restaurants, grocers, and medical facilities, and comes with one assigned covered parking space (#162).

17. 2025-10-17
    listed $225,000 Active 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Settle right into the resort lifestyle with this fully FURNISHED Ventana with a 2004 EZGO golf cart! This one-bedroom, one-bath unit is updated and move-in ready, featuring Pergo laminate flooring (2020), newer bedroom carpet (2021), a replaced AC unit, and all appliances included, complemented by a newer water heater (2018) and filtered kitchen water. Enjoy your own private La Solana amenities--including a heated beach-entry pool, spa, and clubhouse--plus full access to the world-class Sun City Grand amenities. This pet-friendly (one-pet restriction), rental-allowed community is perfectly situated near restaurants, grocers, and medical facilities, and comes with one assigned covered parking space (#162).

18. 2024-09-26
    historical
19. 2024-07-28
    price $230,000
20. 2024-03-23
    price $235,000
21. 2024-02-14
    price $240,000
22. 2023-11-21
    listed $245,000 Active
23. 2023-04-02
    historical
24. 2022-12-09
    listed $245,000 Active
25. 2018-05-24
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
26. 2018-05-24
    soldstatus $115,000
27. 2018-05-24
    soldstatus $115,000
28. 2018-05-07
    status Pending
29. 2018-05-07
    listed $120,000 Active
30. 2018-05-04
    status Pending
31. 2018-05-04
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
32. 2018-03-20
    listed $120,000 Active
33. 2015-12-07
    historical
34. 2015-12-07
    soldstatus $104,900 Closed
35. 2015-12-07
    soldstatus $104,900
36. 2015-11-28
    status Pending
37. 2015-11-10
    listed $104,900 Active
38. 2015-05-06
    historical
39. 2014-10-27
    listed $104,900 Active
40. 2014-05-02
    historical
41. 2014-02-10
    listed $104,900 Active
42. 2005-02-07
    soldstatus $108,000
43. 2005-02-07
    soldstatus $108,000
44. 2005-01-24
    historical
45. 2005-01-20
    listed $110,000
46. 2004-11-18
    soldstatus $88,800
47. 2004-10-11
    historical
48. 2004-10-11
    listed $88,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,294
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − HOA: −$6,204
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,183
• After-tax cash flow: $-620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+119.6% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-28 Price Changed $230,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-23 Price Changed $235,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-14 Price Changed $240,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-21 Listed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-12-09 Listed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-24 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-05-07 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-05-04 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ARMLS
• 2018-03-20 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2015-12-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $104,900 Public Records
• 2015-12-07 Sold (MLS) $104,900 ARMLS
• 2015-11-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-11-10 Listed $104,900 ARMLS
• 2015-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-10-27 Listed $104,900 ARMLS
• 2014-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-02-10 Listed $104,900 ARMLS
• 2005-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-07 Sold (MLS) $108,000 ARMLS
• 2005-01-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-01-20 Listed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2004-11-18 Sold (MLS) $88,800 ARMLS
• 2004-10-11 Listed $88,800 ARMLS
• 2004-10-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,294 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.