37 Ca Ira Rd · Cumberland, VA 23040

$165,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1985 1.46 ac lot $82/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1985 Modular with a garage sold as is.

Key facts

• Renovated kitchen
• 1.46 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.1% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#499 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #113 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Cumberland County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,541 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,014
• List price: $165,500
• Delta: -53.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,935
• Equity at exit: $58,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $52,586
• Equity at exit: $79,281

Cash invested: $46,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23040

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $165,500

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,375
• Closing costs: $4,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,500 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,500 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,500 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,500 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,500 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,500 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,500 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,500 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,500 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,500 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,500 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,500 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,500 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,500 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    status Active 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    1985 Modular with a garage sold as is.

16. 2026-02-18
    status Pending 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    1985 Modular with a garage sold as is.

17. 2026-02-16
    listed $165,500 Active 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    1985 Modular with a garage sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 79.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,271
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$4,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$360
• After-tax cash flow: $1,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101080
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $41,600
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4443
• State rank: #113 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #22100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,491

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,012 people
• By 2030: 8,578 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 7,622 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 6,640 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 4,936 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 3,994 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 39% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.2) · D 38.6% · R 60.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.5pp · 2024: -22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.2 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+13.6 2012: R+2.3 2008: R+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Current HPI: 225.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $165,500 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.