704 11th St · Shallowater, TX 79363

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1953 0.25 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled and move-in ready, this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Shallowater is a rare find at $165,000. Located in the highly desirable Shallowater ISD and close to the school, this home offers the kind of location, updates, and price point that can be hard to find under $180,000, especially for a fully remodeled two bedroom. With a functional layout and fresh updates throughout, it would be a great fit for a first-time buyer, a small family, or anyone looking for an affordable home in Shallowater, Texas. Clean, updated, and priced to sell, this one is hard to beat.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Built with asbestos, board & batten siding, concrete and fiber cement materials; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard; Fenced yard; City lot; Corner lot; Landscaped; Paved road frontage; Publicly maintained road; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range (gas, free-standing)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; His and hers closets; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater El (330 students, 39% FRL); Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,260 (2.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $95,537
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $272,530
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1405 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,525	$1.17	13d	1	0.77mi
1407 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,500	$1.15	21d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $154,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    remarks 578-char remark
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-05-28
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2026-03-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,710 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,835 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,124/yr (+$94/mo · 65.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $165,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,710 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.