15926 40th Ave · Clearlake, CA 95422

$105,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1972 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CLEAN 4 BR. 2 BA. WITH LARGE FAMILY RM. FORMAL DINING AREA. WOOD STOVE, FENCED PARCEL, CARPORT

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SFR; Total units: 1; No ADU; Lot described as 0-1 unit/acre

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-family house; Single-story; Entry on main level; Property faces a view
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Concrete slab foundation; Year built source: Appraiser
• Exterior features: Rural setting; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (details: see remarks); Cooling present (details: see remarks)
• Interior features: One-level home; Main-level entry; Living room; Kitchen; Has heating (see remarks); Has cooling (see remarks); Has fireplace (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Clearlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#549 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.49%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $335,016
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16182 43rd Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (+6%)	9mo	$355,000	$188	63
16223 31st Ave	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,848 (+4%)	3mo	$420,000	$227	62
3884 Villa Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-0%)	23mo	$206,000	$116	58
16143 42nd Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-5%)	21mo	$305,000	$180	58
15280 Konocti	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,870 (+5%)	18mo	$455,000	$243	39
15373 Hudson St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,916 (+8%)	16mo	$249,000	$130	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,728
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $7,823
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95422

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,231/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5935 Old Highway 53 Spc 32 MH (Park Owned) Clearlake, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	20d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 535-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,231 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,231 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$4,231
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $1,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #18284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,101

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.47%
• Current HPI: 248.654
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+9.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-31 Sold (MLS) $200,000 CRMLS
• 2005-05-01 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2004-11-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-01-30 Listed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2000-06-26 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CRMLS
• 2000-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-07 Listed $96,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,231 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.