Is 2035 Falcon Dr in Tyler, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.4% cap rate and $-175/mo modeled cash flow at a $229,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2035 Falcon Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,790/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 42.85

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.3/15.0
Cash flow +9.1/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Schools +3.3/10.0
Rent growth +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.8/10.0
DSCR +2.5/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$229,990

2035 Falcon Dr · Tyler, TX 75702

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,098 sqft lot $144/sqft · 13% below area Est $264k · 13% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

MLS# 21278527 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Charlotte The Charlotte offers a smart two-story layout with approximately 1,600 square feet, 5 bedrooms, and 3.5 bathrooms. Designed with everyday functionality in mind, this home provides open living space, a first-floor primary suite, and four additional bedrooms upstairs for added flexibility.

Key facts

6,098 sq ft lot
Built 2026
Listed 125 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi

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What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (11.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (22.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $179k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Griffin El (math 34% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 671 students, 96% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 66% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 257 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,044 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.78% ✗
Cap rate: 5.38%
Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
DSCR: 0.85
GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $263,892
List price: $229,990
Delta: -12.85%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 W Cochran St	1.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (+1%)	3mo	$99,000	$61	50
2806 N Glass Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,970 (+23%)	2mo	$140,000	$71	46
2514 N Glass Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,209 (-24%)	9mo	$225,000	$186	45
3303 Baldwin Dr	2.06mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,488 (-7%)	1mo	$180,000	$121	36
2207 Belvedere Blvd	1.43mi	3/1.5 (-2)	1,444 (-10%)	4mo	$58,300	$40	28
546 W Erwin St	1.72mi	3/3.5 (-2)	1,956 (+22%)	4mo	$340,000	$174	27
1310 Claude St	1.69mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,337 (-16%)	0mo	$225,000	$168	24
505 Williams Ct	2.08mi	3/2.0 (-2)	2,064 (+29%)	0mo	$215,000	$104	24
6763 Cr 4160	1.58mi	3/1.5 (-2)	1,388 (-13%)	1mo	$255,000	$184	24
136 Letha Ct	0.97mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,272 (-20%)	1mo	$220,000	$173	23
1500 Crescent Dr	1.12mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,880 (+18%)	3mo	$189,000	$101	21
5347 County Road 35	0.91mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,943 (+21%)	10mo	$125,000	$64	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.6%
Equity multiple: 0.23×
Total profit: $-49,690
Equity at exit: $34,292

10-year hold

IRR: -18.7%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-62,788
Equity at exit: $19,885

Cash invested: $64,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 11 active · 5 under contract
Median asking: $232,990 ($161/sqft)
Median days on market: 104 d
This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75702

Home prices YoY: -5.8%
Rents YoY: 2.3%
Active inventory: 257
Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,790 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,450/yr
Insurance: −$96
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $204,673

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-95	+0% $-175	+5% $-254	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-246	+0% $-175	+5% $-104	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-116	base $-175	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $57,498
Closing costs: $6,900
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Builder special listing conditionPossession at closing/funding
Financial info: Seller will treat loan as clearNo second mortgage indicatedFinancing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

Parking: Carport (1 covered carport space)No garage
Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity availableNot in a municipal utility district
Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyTwo storiesNew construction (incomplete, 2026)
Construction: Built in 2026 (new construction - incomplete)Fiber cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Lot smaller than 0.5 acre (approximately 0.14 acre)Subdivision: Dogan

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms totalPrimary bedroom on main level with walk-in closetFour additional bedrooms on second level
Flooring: CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Eat-in kitchenKitchen islandWalk-in closets7 total rooms1 living area1 dining areaTwo-level home
Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $229,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $229,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $229,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $229,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $229,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $229,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $229,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $229,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $229,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $229,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $229,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $229,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $229,990 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $229,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $229,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $229,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $229,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $229,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $229,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $229,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $229,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $229,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $229,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $229,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $229,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $229,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $229,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-20

price $229,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $239,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $239,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $239,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $239,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $239,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $239,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $239,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-13

pricedays on market $239,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $242,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $242,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-10

price $242,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $244,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $244,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $244,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $244,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $244,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $244,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $244,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $244,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $244,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $244,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $244,990 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,485
− Mortgage interest: −$12,883
− Property taxes: −$3,450
− Insurance: −$1,150
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,719
− Management: −$1,719
− Depreciation: −$6,691
Taxable loss: −$6,126

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,470
After-tax cash flow: $-629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and a smart two-story layout. It offers a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, and smart home features would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property for both buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Griffin El F TX #2,668/4,322 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Moore Mst Magnet School D- TX #553/1,662 Nat'l #5,285/14,009 High Tyler H S F TX #1,228/1,632 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Tyler ISD
NCES district ID: 4843470
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $44,090
Composite: 32.69/100
National rank: #5650
State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tyler

Score: 75/100
State rank: #147
US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Tyler, TX
County: Smith County · 248,890 people
City population: 127,842
Metro: Tyler, TX
Population (ZIP): 27,927
Household income: $51,564
Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 248,890 people
By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 37% White 12% Two or more races 11% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
Current HPI: 207.1573
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.27%
Metro: Tyler, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-21 Listed $244,990 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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