31122 Rosebud Dr · Menifee, CA 92596

$595,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,705 sqft · Land · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 4,813 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Residence 1705. Here you will find a two-story floor plan designed with efficient, yet comfortable space planning in mind. This floor plan features 1,705 square feet with up to 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. You will love the seamless transition between the kitchen, dining, and great room. Upstairs you will find a loft, an ideal spot for a game room or a cozy area to watch movies. Among the features and finishes, homeowners will appreciate the unparalleled peace of mind of owning America's Smart Home-a whole-home network of Wi-Fi-enabled smart home devices by brands you trust, all conveniently controlled from your smartphone or the sleek touch screen panel mounted near the entry of each new home.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Deep rear yard

Tags

• DEEP REAR YARD
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Access via paved city streets
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments and Mello-Roos
• HOA & community: Community includes gutters, curbs, street lighting and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway with concrete surface; Uncovered parking for 2 additional vehicles (total parking spaces: 4)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry at front; Home faces west; Under construction
• Construction: Built by D R Horton (model 1705); No accessory dwelling unit (ADU); Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Vinyl fencing; Front yard landscaping; Sprinklers in front and drip irrigation; Sprinklers present; Park nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop and gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Energy Star appliances; Walk-in pantry; Granite counters; Tankless and Energy Star water heater
• Bedrooms: Main level has no bedrooms; Two-story home with bedrooms on upper level (loft and great room also included)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Master bath with double sinks and walk-in shower; Secondary bathrooms include shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Solar heating; Dual cooling system
• Interior features: Pantry; Recessed lighting; Granite counters; Double pane windows with low-emissivity glass and screens; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry located on upper level

🏗️ New construction. The $595,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $603,448.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $596k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $481k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$104k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($578k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $366,734 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $603,448
• List price: $595,990
• Delta: -1.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $273,560
• Equity at exit: $543,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $820,381
• Equity at exit: $1,172,368

Cash invested: $168,966 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,165
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,073/yr
• Insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$770
• Net cashflow: $-692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,543

Max offer price $481,286

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,862
• Closing costs: $18,103
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31319 Autumn Blaze Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,350	$2.13	1d	1	0.10mi
31058 Water Beech Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,900	$2.29	2d	1	0.18mi
Autumn Blaze Dr , CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,075	$1.95	2d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $595,990 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $595,990 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $595,990 Active 40 DOM

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   Discover the Residence 1705. Here you will find a two-story floor plan designed with efficient, yet comfortable space planning in mind. This floor plan features 1,705 square feet with up to 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. You will love the seamless transition between the kitchen, dining, and great room. Upstairs you will find a loft, an ideal spot for a game room or a cozy area to watch movies. Among the features and finishes, homeowners will appreciate the unparalleled peace of mind of owning America's Smart Home-a whole-home network of Wi-Fi-enabled smart home devices by brands you trust, all conveniently controlled from your smartphone or the sleek touch screen panel mounted near the entry of each new home.

4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $595,990 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $595,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $595,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $595,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $595,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $595,990 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $595,990 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $595,990 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $595,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,990 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $595,990 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Discover the Residence 1705. Here you will find a two-story floor plan designed with efficient, yet comfortable space planning in mind. This floor plan features 1,705 square feet with up to 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. You will love the seamless transition between the kitchen, dining, and great room. Upstairs you will find a loft, an ideal spot for a game room or a cozy area to watch movies. Among the features and finishes, homeowners will appreciate the unparalleled peace of mind of owning America's Smart Home-a whole-home network of Wi-Fi-enabled smart home devices by brands you trust, all conveniently controlled from your smartphone or the sleek touch screen panel mounted near the entry of each new home.

15. 2026-05-07
    listed $595,990 Active 747-char remark
16. 2026-04-01
    soldstatus $5,055,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,073 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,530 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,457/yr (+$205/mo · 118.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,802
• − Property taxes: −$2,073
• − Insurance: −$3,017
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,521
• − Management: −$3,521
• − Depreciation: −$17,555
• Taxable loss: −$19,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-88.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $579,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Listed $595,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $595,990 CRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,055,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+846.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,073 · +846.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.