307 Flower Ave E · Watertown, NY 13601

$164,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1890 7,400 sqft lot Est $263k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 2-story home located in the City of Watertown offering plenty of room and endless potential to make it your own. This property features 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a walk-up attic providing additional storage or future possibilities. The oversized living room includes a decorative fireplace and offers generous gathering space. A first-floor bedroom can also serve as a home office, hobby room, or bonus space to fit your needs. The spacious kitchen connects to a mudroom with convenient first-floor laundry and half bath. Enjoy the convenance of a full bath on the second floor with the 3 other bedrooms. Outside, you’ll find a fenced backyard, detached garage, and a covered front p

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Decorative fireplace
• Walk-up attic

Tags

• WALK-UP ATTIC
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CLOSE TO CITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Stone foundation; Existing (year built details)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Electric and gas (baseboard and forced air)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $161,540 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.45%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
360 Brainard St	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-3%)	2mo	$162,000	$80	83
946 Franklin St	0.34mi	4/1.5	2,110 (+2%)	0mo	$256,000	$121	81
418 Brainard St	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,152 (+4%)	1mo	$274,000	$127	79
158 Haley St	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,105 (+2%)	2mo	$241,000	$114	78
711 Cadwell St	0.14mi	4/1.5	1,870 (-10%)	1mo	$239,900	$128	76
142 Haley St	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,104 (+2%)	4mo	$279,900	$133	75
919 Academy St	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,128 (+3%)	0mo	$150,000	$70	72
340 Winslow St	0.12mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,288 (+10%)	2mo	$203,425	$89	68
1120 Temple St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,980 (-4%)	2mo	$300,000	$152	60
1141 State St	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,272 (+10%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	47
1151 Harrison St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,871 (-10%)	0mo	$300,000	$160	45
1025 Boyd St	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,345 (+13%)	2mo	$231,000	$99	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,173
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $79,243
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,941/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,380

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
417 Franklin St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$1,750	$0.58	43d	1	0.23mi
621 Academy St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,600	$0.97	43d	1	0.30mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	43d	1	0.31mi
128 Park Ave Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	2300	$2,400	$1.04	43d	1	0.32mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	43d	1	0.49mi
377 W Main St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1991	$1,350	$0.68	43d	1	1.03mi
156 N Meadow St Watertown, NY	4.0	1.0	2535	$1,500	$0.59	43d	1	1.05mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,626	$1.13	43d	9	1.10mi
702 Leray St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	2700	$1,300	$0.48	43d	1	1.29mi
1815 Olmstead Dr Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1380	$1,676	$1.21	43d	6	1.38mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $164,000 Active
17. 2016-01-27
    historical
18. 2015-01-12
    listed $154,900
19. 2010-04-13
    soldstatus $157,500
20. 2010-04-12
    soldstatus $150,000
21. 2009-12-23
    listed $160,000
22. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus $123,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,941 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$1,941
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable income: $1,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $3,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $164,000 CNYIS
• 2016-01-27 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-01-12 Listed $154,900 CNYIS
• 2010-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $157,500 Public Records
• 2010-04-12 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CNYIS
• 2009-12-23 Listed $160,000 CNYIS
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,941 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.