29 Southwind Dr · Belleair Bluffs, FL 33770

$524,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,117 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1956 8,921 sqft lot Est $739k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in desirable Belleair Bluffs, just minutes from pristine Gulf beaches, golf courses, shopping, and entertainment. This home features a well-appointed kitchen with maple cabinetry in a rich cherry finish, granite countertops, an undermount stainless steel sink, and convenient corner lazy Susan's. All stainless steel appliances are included, highlighted by a propane-fueled double oven range connected to a 250-gallon underground propane tank. Ample storage is available throughout, including a spacious center island. Energy efficiency and durability are standout features, with double-pane argon-filled vinyl windows (installed in 2003), hurrican

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Energy efficiency
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MAPLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PROPANE DOUBLE OVEN RANGE
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Solar energy generation

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Propane available; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block construction; Concrete, membrane, and tile roofing; Slab foundation; Built as a single-story structure
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Bamboo
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $421k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $421k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#162 in FL, #2,443 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mildred Helms Elementary School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C-, #1,035 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 514 students, 65% FRL); Largo Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 882 students, 66% FRL); Largo High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 2,055 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,208/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $525k implies a 304% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $420,821 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $738,833
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
651 20th St NW	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,026 (-4%)	3mo	$688,000	$340	76
263 Overbrook St E	0.21mi	3/3.0	2,087 (-1%)	16mo	$530,000	$254	70
14 Evonaire Cir	0.39mi	3/3.0	2,263 (+7%)	10mo	$798,000	$353	58
1700 Kay Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,115 (-0%)	15mo	$288,000	$136	56
700 14th St NW	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,806 (-15%)	2mo	$598,000	$331	48
2979 Del Rio Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,802 (-15%)	7mo	$628,000	$349	47
668 Mehlenbacher Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,019 (-5%)	20mo	$675,000	$334	47
1 Bluff View Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,219 (+5%)	20mo	$900,000	$406	46
1630 Golf View Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,945 (-8%)	19mo	$1,100,000	$566	46
2826 Del Rio Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,814 (-14%)	20mo	$640,000	$353	42
3069 Sunset Blvd	0.58mi	3/3.0	2,403 (+14%)	20mo	$1,140,000	$474	30
106 Indian Rocks Rd S	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,378 (+12%)	14mo	$640,000	$269	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-87,811
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-112,376
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33770

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,382/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$884
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,013

Max offer price $524,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $303	+0% $154	+5% $5	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-12	+0% $154	+5% $320	+10% $487
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $288	base $154	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 E Overbrook St Unit 1053145P Largo, FL	4.0	3.0	1840	$9,009	$4.90	24d	1	0.24mi
2131 W Bay Dr Unit B Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	22d	1	0.38mi
370 Foster Ln Belleair, FL	4.0	2.5	2156	$5,000	$2.32	0d	1	0.38mi
325 Mehlenbacher Rd Belleair Bluffs, FL	3.0	2.0	2049	$4,500	$2.20	6d	1	0.44mi
1006 14th Ave NW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,450	$1.70	26d	1	0.92mi
620 Petit Way Unit 1060749P Largo, FL	3.0	3.0	2411	$5,656	$2.35	0d	1	1.06mi
623 Petit Way Largo, FL	3.0	3.0	2420	$7,500	$3.10	5d	1	1.06mi
1261 12th Ct SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	2086	$4,200	$2.01	22d	1	1.28mi
2543 Sunny Breeze Ave Unit 1520129P Largo, FL	3.0	3.0	1905	$5,929	$3.11	0d	1	1.29mi
2402 Dryer Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1872	$3,000	$1.60	26d	1	1.38mi
6 Belleview Blvd #306 Belleair, FL	2.0	2.0	1403	$3,500	$2.49	26d	1	1.44mi
8 Belleview Blvd #601 Belleair, FL	2.0	2.0	1403	$3,300	$2.35	26d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $524,999 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $524,999 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $524,999 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $524,999 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $550,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $550,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $550,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $550,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,382 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,357 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,975/yr (+$165/mo · 82.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$2,382
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,040
• − Management: −$4,040
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,745
• After-tax cash flow: $3,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Belleair Bluffs

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #2443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime A Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleair Bluffs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,368
• Household income: $59,815
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -317.05%
• Current HPI: 353.8484
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.47%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+323.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $550,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,382 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.