509 American Elm Dr · Royse City, TX 75189

$280,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot $268/sqft · 88% above area Est $298k · 6% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Gorgeous and spacious single story! Open floor plan with four bedrooms, two full baths, and nice covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D.R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Led lighting
• Island kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis El (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 500 students, 52% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $207,284 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,677
• List price: $280,990
• Delta: -5.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Brookhaven Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,076 (+3%)	10mo	$225,000	$209	51
601 N Houston St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (+8%)	8mo	$225,000	$199	51
713 Brookhaven Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,104 (+5%)	9mo	$190,000	$172	50
704 Loganwood Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	10mo	$217,500	$216	48
704 N Josephine St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (+14%)	1mo	$235,000	$196	44
704 Peterson St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,199 (+14%)	6mo	$240,000	$200	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-75,729
• Equity at exit: $41,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-120,265
• Equity at exit: $24,295

Cash invested: $78,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1301
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,571/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $213,869

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-300	+0% $-380	+5% $-459	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-544	-5% $-462	+0% $-380	+5% $-298	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-238	-0.5pp $-308	base $-380	+0.5pp $-453	+1.0pp $-527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,248
• Closing costs: $8,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 College St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,850	$1.48	6d	1	0.31mi
1023 Lakes Dr Royse City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1194	$1,749	$1.46	3d	1	0.43mi
209 E Gail Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,850	$1.51	0d	1	0.54mi
721 Oak Grove Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,805	$1.52	0d	1	0.63mi
913 Live Oak St Unit B Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,600	$1.43	22d	1	0.66mi
821 Loganwood Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,725	$1.34	26d	1	0.71mi
1017 N Houston St Royse City, TX	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,725	$1.19	45d	1	0.75mi
412 Pin Oak Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,800	$1.44	45d	1	0.85mi
412 Pin Oak Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,800	$1.44	1d	1	0.85mi
221 Rustic Grove Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,895	$1.54	45d	1	0.91mi
1501 Kelly Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,875	$1.34	0d	1	1.25mi
1612 Audrey Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,799	$1.47	45d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-06
   price $280,990 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   New! Gorgeous and spacious single story! Open floor plan with four bedrooms, two full baths, and nice covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D.R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

2. 2026-03-11
   price $278,990 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   New! Gorgeous and spacious single story! Open floor plan with four bedrooms, two full baths, and nice covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D.R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

3. 2026-02-25
   price $288,990 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   New! Gorgeous and spacious single story! Open floor plan with four bedrooms, two full baths, and nice covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D.R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

4. 2026-02-11
   listed $287,990 Active 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   New! Gorgeous and spacious single story! Open floor plan with four bedrooms, two full baths, and nice covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D.R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

5. 1994-09-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,571 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,142 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,740
• − Property taxes: −$4,571
• − Insurance: −$1,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,174
• Taxable loss: −$9,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,291
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Royse City, TX
• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $280,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $278,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $288,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $287,990 NTREIS
• 1994-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,571 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.