11335 Water Oak Dr · Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$180,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Approximately 1250 sq. ft. 3 Bedroom 2 bath brick home. Situated in a cul-de-sac in Marion Oaks Subdivision. Spacious backyard with lots of open space but also mature shade trees. Lots of Storage; 16x12 (Approx. ) storage building, 17x6 (Approx. ) carport storage room, small playhouse used for covered storage, and attic access. 4-year-old John Deere Riding Mower negotiable. Wood-burning fireplace. All electric appliances. The refrigerator is negotiable. Big Sandy Elementary, Duncanville Middle School, Hillcrest High School. Disclosure: Owner is a licensed Real Estate Agent in the state of Alabama (inactive status).

Key facts

• Covered storage
• Storage building
• Carport storage room

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• STORAGE BUILDING
• CARPORT STORAGE ROOM
• COVERED STORAGE
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,031 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-14,072
• Equity at exit: $26,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $18,793
• Equity at exit: $15,606

Cash invested: $50,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35405

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$947
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $386/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $180,500

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,125
• Closing costs: $5,415
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11146 Longbow Dr Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	11d	1	0.47mi
11343 Snapdragon Cv , AL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,495	$1.26	43d	1	0.91mi
11316 Snapdragon Cv , AL	2.0	1.0	899	$1,395	$1.55	43d	1	0.94mi
14320 Firefly LN Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	11d	1	1.00mi
14349 Buttercup Way , AL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,495	$1.26	43d	1	1.00mi
14332 Firefly Ln Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.0	899	$1,375	$1.53	11d	1	1.02mi
14338 Firefly Ln Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,600	$1.35	43d	1	1.03mi
14391 Buttercup Way , AL	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,665	$1.15	11d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,500 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,500 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $180,500 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,500 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,500 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,500 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,500 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,500 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-25
    listed $180,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $386 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$29/mo · 91.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,111
• − Property taxes: −$386
• − Insurance: −$902
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$5,251
• Taxable loss: −$922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$221
• After-tax cash flow: $2,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 49,420
• Household income: $62,301
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.25%
• Current HPI: 193.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.42%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $180,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $386 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.