12391 Hawkins Rd · Burt, MI 48417

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1993

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

Key facts

• Built 1993

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#403 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chesaning Union Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #153 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.80%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-326
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $35,640
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48417

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $175,000
2. 2024-12-20
   soldstatus $75,000 Closed 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

3. 2024-12-20
   soldstatus $55,000 Closed 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

4. 2024-12-20
   soldstatus $55,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

5. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
6. 2024-11-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

7. 2024-11-27
   status Pending 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

8. 2024-11-27
   status Pending 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

9. 2024-10-30
   listed $78,000 Active 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

10. 2024-10-30
    listed $78,000 Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

11. 2024-10-30
    listed $78,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Just under an acre of country living, you'll find this four bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Will need some TLC, but with the right ideas, this could be a dream come true! Call for your showing today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $855 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$920/yr (+$77/mo · 107.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $4,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesaning Union Schools
• NCES district ID: 2609150
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,955
• Composite: 37.82/100
• National rank: #4333
• State rank: #153 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burt

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #10945

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,310

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.25%
• Current HPI: 202.2839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+124.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-12-20 Sold (MLS) $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-12-20 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-20 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $78,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-30 Listed $78,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $78,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $855 · -53.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.