1451 Shady Rest Rd · Shady Side, MD 20764

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1964 1.58 ac lot ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful opportunity to renovate or tear down to build new home on a 1.58 acre lot. The property has existing well and septic tank. Very close to the Chesapeake Bay for fishing and boating within minutes of the house. Also only 40 minutes to Washington or Baltimore, and 15 minutes to Annapolis.

Key facts

• Buildable property
• Operational well
• 1.58 acres

Tags

• 1.58 ACRES
• OPERATIONAL WELL
• BUILDABLE PROPERTY
• MARINA ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 3.3% in Shady Side — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#205 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shady Side Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #353 of 860 statewide, top 45%, 401 students, 29% FRL); Southern Middle (math 8% / reading 39%, grade F, #118 of 225 statewide, top 54%, 755 students, 45% FRL); Southern High (math 52% / reading 73%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,066 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.76%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1469 Cedarhurst Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+1%)	1mo	$420,000	$404	69
1197 Poplar Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+5%)	8mo	$340,000	$313	62
1460 Cedarhurst Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	928 (-10%)	7mo	$325,000	$350	56
1223 Pine Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-7%)	0mo	$315,000	$328	53
1215 Pine Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,027 (-0%)	11mo	$399,000	$389	53
4925 Aspen St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (+3%)	10mo	$335,000	$316	52
1508 Cedarhurst Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	960 (-7%)	12mo	$305,000	$318	51
1228 Avalon Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	10mo	$400,000	$357	48
4913 Chestnut St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+12%)	6mo	$347,000	$301	47
1230 Avalon Blvd	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-7%)	14mo	$325,000	$339	47
1216 Hawthorne St	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,100 (+7%)	10mo	$370,000	$336	47
4937 Aspen St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	886 (-14%)	4mo	$385,999	$436	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $57,297
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $144,706
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20764

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,387/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $1,149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1304 Avalon Blvd Shady Side, MD	3.0	2.5	1414	$2,795	$1.98	43d	1	0.39mi
4807 Woods Wharf Rd Shady Side, MD	2.0	1.0	1049	$2,395	$2.28	43d	1	0.57mi
4807 Woods Wharf Rd Shady Side, MD	2.0	1.0	1049	$2,495	$2.38	14d	1	0.57mi
1193 Maple Ave Shady Side, MD	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,250	$1.74	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-12
   historical
3. 2026-01-12
   historical
4. 2026-01-05
   price $99,000
5. 2026-01-05
   price $99,000
6. 2025-12-08
   listed $159,000 Active
7. 2025-12-08
   listed $159,000 Active
8. 2020-12-04
   soldstatus $225,000 Closed 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Wonderful opportunity to renovate or tear down to build new home on a 1.58 acre lot. The property has existing well and septic tank. Very close to the Chesapeake Bay for fishing and boating within minutes of the house. Also only 40 minutes to Washington or Baltimore, and 15 minutes to Annapolis.

9. 2020-11-13
   status Pending 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Wonderful opportunity to renovate or tear down to build new home on a 1.58 acre lot. The property has existing well and septic tank. Very close to the Chesapeake Bay for fishing and boating within minutes of the house. Also only 40 minutes to Washington or Baltimore, and 15 minutes to Annapolis.

10. 2020-10-20
    historical Active Under Contract 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Wonderful opportunity to renovate or tear down to build new home on a 1.58 acre lot. The property has existing well and septic tank. Very close to the Chesapeake Bay for fishing and boating within minutes of the house. Also only 40 minutes to Washington or Baltimore, and 15 minutes to Annapolis.

11. 2020-10-11
    price $225,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Wonderful opportunity to renovate or tear down to build new home on a 1.58 acre lot. The property has existing well and septic tank. Very close to the Chesapeake Bay for fishing and boating within minutes of the house. Also only 40 minutes to Washington or Baltimore, and 15 minutes to Annapolis.

12. 2020-09-28
    listed $229,900 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Wonderful opportunity to renovate or tear down to build new home on a 1.58 acre lot. The property has existing well and septic tank. Very close to the Chesapeake Bay for fishing and boating within minutes of the house. Also only 40 minutes to Washington or Baltimore, and 15 minutes to Annapolis.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,387 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,387 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 52% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,387
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $13,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,146
• After-tax cash flow: $10,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Shady Side

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #9775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Side, MD
• City population: 3,011
• Population (ZIP): 3,011

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.97%
• Current HPI: 264.1045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-56.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-12-04 Sold (MLS) $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-11 Price Changed $225,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-28 Listed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,387 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.