5409 Umar Ave · McAllen, TX 78573

$345,005

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Land · 90 Days on market

Built 2026 $189/sqft · 18% above area Est $294k · 18% over $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ethan Floor Plan is a modern, open-concept home thoughtfully designed for both style and functionality. This single-story layout features three spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious master bedroom with an attached walk-in closet and customizable master bath options. The master bath can be tailored with a garden tub and shower combination, a double sink vanity, or knee-space enhancements to fit homeowners' needs. At the heart of the home, the open living room, kitchen, and dining room create a seamless flow, ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring a large island, walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining space. Two secondary bedrooms are perfectly positioned near a shared bathroom #2 for added convenience, while the nearby utility room ensures laundry and home maintenance tasks are effortless. A covered patio off the living area provides a cozy outdoor retreat, perfect for relaxing or entertaining in all seasons. The foyer and welcoming porch add curb appeal, leading to the two-car garage, which offers ample storage and parking space. With its versatile design and optional upgrades, the Ethan Floor Plan is a perfect choice for growing families or individuals seeking comfort, elegance, and modern living.

Key facts

• Large island
• Walk in closet
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• WALK IN CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB AND SHOWER
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-520 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,396 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.46%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,557
• List price: $345,005
• Delta: 17.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $153,511
• Equity at exit: $310,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $475,652
• Equity at exit: $670,269

Cash invested: $96,601 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 623
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,778/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $253,084

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,251
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4616 Swallow Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,600	$1.16	14d	1	0.48mi
4416 Thunderbird Ave McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,200	$1.06	14d	1	0.58mi
5508 Cornell Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,600	$1.37	14d	1	0.58mi
8015 N 48th Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,500	$1.20	14d	1	0.71mi
4808 Ibis Ave McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1364	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	0.78mi
4408 Heron Ct McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1738	$2,900	$1.67	43d	1	0.99mi
4012 Auburn Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$1,900	$1.03	14d	1	1.01mi
4012 Auburn Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	43d	1	1.01mi
3908 Zenker Ave McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1946	$3,500	$1.80	43d	1	1.02mi
3104 E Kennedy Ave Alton, TX	3.0	2.5	1642	$2,600	$1.58	43d	1	1.19mi
3601 Warbler Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,500	$0.96	23d	1	1.24mi
3509 Robin Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$1,795	$0.98	14d	1	1.33mi
4616 Xanthisma Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,950	$1.46	14d	1	1.39mi
3409 Martin Ave McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1958	$1,895	$0.97	14d	1	1.47mi
4830 N 47th Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,222	$1.30	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,005 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,005 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,005 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,005 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $345,005 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $344,355 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,355 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,355 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,355 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,355 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,355 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,355 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,355 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $344,355 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $345,005 Active 1287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1287 chars)

    The Ethan Floor Plan is a modern, open-concept home thoughtfully designed for both style and functionality. This single-story layout features three spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious master bedroom with an attached walk-in closet and customizable master bath options. The master bath can be tailored with a garden tub and shower combination, a double sink vanity, or knee-space enhancements to fit homeowners' needs. At the heart of the home, the open living room, kitchen, and dining room create a seamless flow, ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring a large island, walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining space. Two secondary bedrooms are perfectly positioned near a shared bathroom #2 for added convenience, while the nearby utility room ensures laundry and home maintenance tasks are effortless. A covered patio off the living area provides a cozy outdoor retreat, perfect for relaxing or entertaining in all seasons. The foyer and welcoming porch add curb appeal, leading to the two-car garage, which offers ample storage and parking space. With its versatile design and optional upgrades, the Ethan Floor Plan is a perfect choice for growing families or individuals seeking comfort, elegance, and modern living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,314 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,535/yr (+$378/mo · 255.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,326
• − Property taxes: −$1,778
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$10,037
• Taxable loss: −$12,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McAllen, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $345,005 Zillow

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,778 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.