6 Adventure Rd #133 · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40216

$16,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This cozy 2-bedroom 1-bath home offers efficient living in its well-designed 700 sq ft layout. This Cavco Reflection Manufactured Home is a single wide and is a smart choice for those looking to make the most of a manageable footprint. Built on a sturdy 14x50 frame, the Reflection pairs quality construction with a practical floor plan suited to comfortable everyday living. Located in Pioneer Acres, a welcoming manufactured home community in Louisville, Kentucky, this home puts you within reach of everything the city has to offer - from local dining and shopping to major employers and easy highway access - all at a price point that makes homeownership genuinely attainable. Whether you're a f

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 69 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 700; Address: 6 Adventure Rd #133, Louisville, KY 40216; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $16,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Forced air heating (listed under utilities); Cooling present
• Home design: Spec / Cavco Reflection plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Other heating; Other cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $17k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $598 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($905 rent vs $17k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 48.8% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $117 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $507 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,886 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 48.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 151.73%
• DSCR: 7.75
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.02×
• Total profit: $33,221
• Equity at exit: $2,520

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.71×
• Total profit: $69,608
• Equity at exit: $1,461

Cash invested: $4,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $148

Max offer price $16,900

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,225
• Closing costs: $507
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3405 Shagbark Rd Unit 10 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	500	$725	$1.45	23d	1	0.64mi
3405 Shagbark Rd Apt 13 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	500	$750	$1.50	23d	1	0.64mi
3107 Melody Acres Ln Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	16d	1	1.47mi
3204 Melody Acres Ln Unit 3202-3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $16,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $16,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $16,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $16,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $16,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $16,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $16,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $16,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $16,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $16,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $16,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $16,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $16,900 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$947
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$84
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$869
• − Management: −$869
• − Depreciation: −$492
• Taxable income: $7,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,764
• After-tax cash flow: $5,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B