12016 Arlene Dr · Homer Glen, IL 60491

$549,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1993 10,454 sqft lot Est $538k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy this Homer Glen "Country Woods" subdivision home! Featuring a two story 5 bedroom 2.5 bathroom floor plan! Massive back yard with private wooded views! Full basement! Attached 3 car garage! Master bedroom suite with walk in closet and full bathroom! First floor bedroom, spacious family and living room! Make an appointment to view today!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1993

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Country Woods subdivision, Homer Glen
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (owned), 3 garage parking spaces, 3 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 2-story design; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Built approximately 31–40 years ago
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a cul-de-sac; Less than 0.25 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total — master suite on the second floor; One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; 8 total rooms; Unfinished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (8 x 10)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $550k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.4% in Homer Glen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#449 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockport Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #153 of 620 in IL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lockport Township High Sch East (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #117 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 3,872 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $365k; list at $550k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $549,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $538,084
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12048 Arlene Dr	0.06mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,793 (+0%)	19mo	$740,000	$265	72
15201 S Mackenzie Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5	3,100 (+11%)	16mo	$1,315,529	$424	57
15652 White Pine Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,485 (-11%)	1mo	$562,000	$226	54
15175 Rodao Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	3,026 (+8%)	12mo	$810,000	$268	53
12133 Black Pine Trl	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,669 (-4%)	10mo	$501,000	$188	52
12143 Black Forest Trl	0.45mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,942 (+6%)	17mo	$529,900	$180	51
14737 Maplecreek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,797 (+0%)	14mo	$440,000	$157	48
64 Silo Rdg S	0.68mi	4/3.0	3,000 (+8%)	9mo	$749,000	$250	46
14814 Oakcreek Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	3,058 (+10%)	11mo	$590,000	$193	45
12263 Lakeview Trl	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,503 (-10%)	15mo	$410,000	$164	43
12 Silo Ridge Rd W	0.53mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,194 (+15%)	20mo	$610,000	$191	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-60,007
• Equity at exit: $81,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-13,767
• Equity at exit: $47,545

Cash invested: $153,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60491

• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,136 /mo · $13,638/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,250
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,379

Max offer price $549,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,475
• Closing costs: $16,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15538 Royal Glen Ct Orland Park, IL	4.0	3.0	3584	$5,950	$1.66	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 344-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $549,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,638 · $1,136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,638 · $1,136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,803
• − Property taxes: −$13,638
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,712
• − Management: −$5,712
• − Depreciation: −$15,997
• Taxable loss: −$3,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$771
• After-tax cash flow: $6,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1723350
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,994
• Composite: 33.5/100
• National rank: #5440
• State rank: #153 of 620 in IL

Livability — Homer Glen

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #9274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homer Glen, IL
• City population: 22,585
• Population (ZIP): 22,585

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 24% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Arabic 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.66%
• Current HPI: 208.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+50.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $549,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $13,638 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.