Plan 1346 Plan · Memphis, FL 34221

$275,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily · 284 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Smart thermostat * Kitchen USB charging port * Extended dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Primary bedroom at rear of home for added privacy * Tile flooring at entry, kitchen, baths and laundry room * Stainless steel appliance package * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Kitchen breakfast bar * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby * Pond * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Tile flooring
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• SMART THERMOSTAT
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT
• EXTENDED DUAL-SINK VANITY
• TILE FLOORING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOW-E WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Inventory type: Plan (new construction inventory)
• Financial info: List price $267,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 1346); Located in Palmetto, FL
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,346 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan 1346 model

🏗️ New construction. The $275,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,082.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,426 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,082
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8761 Royal Acacia Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+12%)	4mo	$327,839	$217	72
3208 Osteen Cv	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+12%)	7mo	$313,850	$208	70
9409 29th Ave E	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-3%)	4mo	$280,000	$215	68
2702 94th St E	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-0%)	16mo	$320,000	$238	61
3432 97th Ln E	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+4%)	6mo	$290,000	$206	53
2807 94th St E	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+6%)	18mo	$390,000	$274	53
4015 86th St E	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+14%)	5mo	$315,447	$205	45
9207 Optimist Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+11%)	3mo	$289,999	$195	45
8547 40th Cir E	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+14%)	12mo	$430,000	$279	41
9117 Optimist Way	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (+11%)	3mo	$279,999	$188	41
3429 97th Ln E	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-15%)	10mo	$280,000	$244	34
3421 97th Ln E	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-15%)	18mo	$305,000	$266	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,928
• Equity at exit: $43,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-90,780
• Equity at exit: $25,254

Cash invested: $81,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,532
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,381/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $274,841

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,020
• Closing costs: $8,762
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9204 34th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	11d	1	0.33mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	21d	1	0.60mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	21d	1	0.67mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	23d	1	0.72mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,044	$1.85	23d	1	1.04mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,445	$2.48	3d	220	1.04mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,491	$2.85	1d	21	1.42mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	23d	99	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,990 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $275,990 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,990 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,990 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,990 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,990 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,990 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,990 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,990 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $270,990 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,990 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,990 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,990 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $270,990 Active 266 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,361
• − Property taxes: −$4,381
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − Depreciation: −$8,497
• Taxable loss: −$6,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B