21 Rockville Rd · Fairton, NJ 08302

$85,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1900 7,841 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is being offered for sale in its current condition, providing a compelling opportunity for investors or new owners. With the right construction team and an appropriate budget, the home can be transformed into a spacious residence featuring three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, encompassing approximately 1,400 square feet. Architectural plans have already been prepared, and permits have been approved for the proposed renovations. However, it is important to note that permits will need to be transferred to the new owner upon purchase. Currently, there is no septic system or well on the property. The buyer is responsible for conducting all necessary due diligence regarding the approval of permits for the new owner, as well as obtaining approvals for a new well, septic system, and any additional site improvements that may be required at buyer’s expense. Do NOT go onto the property without an approved appointment.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#506 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Cumberland Regional School District (town): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.28%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,416
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Main St	0.31mi	3/1.0	940 (+4%)	10mo	$190,000	$202	66
21 Lummis Mill Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-13%)	2mo	$80,000	$101	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $25,875
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $73,948
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08302

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,305/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $99,900 949-char remark

    Show marketing remark (949 chars)

    This property is being offered for sale in its current condition, providing a compelling opportunity for investors or new owners. With the right construction team and an appropriate budget, the home can be transformed into a spacious residence featuring three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, encompassing approximately 1,400 square feet. Architectural plans have already been prepared, and permits have been approved for the proposed renovations. However, it is important to note that permits will need to be transferred to the new owner upon purchase. Currently, there is no septic system or well on the property. The buyer is responsible for conducting all necessary due diligence regarding the approval of permits for the new owner, as well as obtaining approvals for a new well, septic system, and any additional site improvements that may be required at buyer’s expense. Do NOT go onto the property without an approved appointment.

18. 2026-03-13
    listed $125,000 Active 949-char remark

    Show marketing remark (949 chars)

    This property is being offered for sale in its current condition, providing a compelling opportunity for investors or new owners. With the right construction team and an appropriate budget, the home can be transformed into a spacious residence featuring three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, encompassing approximately 1,400 square feet. Architectural plans have already been prepared, and permits have been approved for the proposed renovations. However, it is important to note that permits will need to be transferred to the new owner upon purchase. Currently, there is no septic system or well on the property. The buyer is responsible for conducting all necessary due diligence regarding the approval of permits for the new owner, as well as obtaining approvals for a new well, septic system, and any additional site improvements that may be required at buyer’s expense. Do NOT go onto the property without an approved appointment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,305 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,305 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$3,305
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $5,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3403620
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,721
• Composite: 17.28/100
• National rank: #9088
• State rank: #436 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Fairton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #21401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 47,003

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 30% Black 25% Two or more races 19% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.94%
• Current HPI: 290.6461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,305 · +294.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.