4081 Burgen Ave · St. Louis, MO 63116

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1926 3,327 sqft lot $129/sqft · 13% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible 3 bed, 1 bath home with approx 1286sf of total living space on all levels. This 1.5 story home has a main floor bedroom, living room, dining room, and kitchen. The upper level dormer area has 2 bedrooms. The partially finished basement has an area finished and rooms for storage and laundry. Large fenced backyard. This home is located in a fantastic area and ready for your personal touches. Please Write offer on Special Sales contract & upload offer to WWW.PROPOFFERS.com. 10% Earnest Money Required for Cash Offers. If your offer is accepted, you agree to an offer submission technology fee of $212.00. The fee will be collected & disbursed by the settlement agent at closing. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. Property is sold in current, as/is condition.

Key facts

• Main floor bedroom
• 3,327 sq ft lot
• Built 1926

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR BEDROOM
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,176
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -50.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3976 Eichelberger St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-2%)	1mo	$10,000	$14	79
4035 Schiller Pl	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	762 (+4%)	2mo	$114,900	$151	77
5034 Ray Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	800 (+9%)	1mo	$165,000	$206	66
5610 Leona St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (+14%)	4mo	$150,000	$179	64
4045 Walsh St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	803 (+9%)	2mo	$55,635	$69	63
5231 Steffens Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (+11%)	6mo	$125,000	$153	61
4359 Toenges Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (+4%)	2mo	$179,900	$234	58
5129 Cologne Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	776 (+5%)	5mo	$194,400	$251	52
5420 Dewey Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	816 (+11%)	7mo	$95,000	$116	50
5039 Grace Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+8%)	0mo	$145,500	$184	48
5450 Dresden Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	829 (+13%)	1mo	$150,000	$181	48
5115 Cologne Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (+11%)	6mo	$169,500	$207	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-8,309
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $874
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63116

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,528/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $841

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4215 Neosho St Unit 101 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	0.71mi
6725 Wanda Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	43d	1	0.80mi
3601 Holly Hills Blvd Apt 19 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	2d	1	0.84mi
4451 Grace Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	17d	1	1.00mi
3702 Meramec St Unit 1e St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	725	$950	$1.31	7d	1	1.19mi
4617 Virginia Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	23d	1	1.22mi
3860 Bamberger Ave Unit 3N St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$799	$1.14	17d	1	1.26mi
440 Eichelberger St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	2d	1	1.27mi
5305 S Compton Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	1.28mi
3534 Morgan Ford Rd Unit 3534-C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $94,900 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $94,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $94,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-04-16
   listed $94,900 Active 833-char remark

   Show marketing remark (833 chars)

   Incredible 3 bed, 1 bath home with approx 1286sf of total living space on all levels. This 1.5 story home has a main floor bedroom, living room, dining room, and kitchen. The upper level dormer area has 2 bedrooms. The partially finished basement has an area finished and rooms for storage and laundry. Large fenced backyard. This home is located in a fantastic area and ready for your personal touches. Please Write offer on Special Sales contract & upload offer to WWW.PROPOFFERS.com. 10% Earnest Money Required for Cash Offers. If your offer is accepted, you agree to an offer submission technology fee of $212.00. The fee will be collected & disbursed by the settlement agent at closing. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. Property is sold in current, as/is condition.

5. 2005-05-26
   soldstatus
6. 2004-10-26
   soldstatus $108,000
7. 1992-05-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,528
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable loss: −$112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $1,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 42,170
• Household income: $61,433
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1923.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.19%
• Current HPI: 215.7108
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,528 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.