5201 S Chuichu Rd #127 · Casa Grande, AZ 85193

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1983 800 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy easy living in this charming 2-bed, 1-bath home perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot with beautiful mountain views. Located in a quiet, all-ages community, this property offers peace and convenience with quick access to both I-8 and I-10. Lot rent includes water, sewer, and trash, making life simple and affordable. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a low-maintenance retreat, this home combines comfort, value, and a prime location.

Key facts

• Vinyl wood flooring
• End unit corner lot
• Quick access to i-10

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• END UNIT CORNER LOT
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-8
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-10
• TASTEFULLY DECORATED KITCHEN
• VINYL WOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size listed as 800 (source: owner)
• Financial info: Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly): $580; Association covers grounds maintenance, street maintenance, trash, and water; Community pool, playground, and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 1 open parking space
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Desert view
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Corner lot; Dirt front yard; Dirt back yard; County maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $672 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $45k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.34%
• DSCR: 4.13
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $22,272
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5201 S Chuichu Rd #127	0.00mi	2/1.0	768 (0%)	6mo	$22,000	$29	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $46,679
• Equity at exit: $18,518

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $108,330
• Equity at exit: $27,270

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85193

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $478

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,888
• After-tax cash flow: $6,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 69,701
• Population (ZIP): 4,900

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 35% Two or more races 13% Native American 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Current HPI: 251.7085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) $22,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-15 Price Changed $49,900 ARMLS
• 2024-10-14 Listed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Listed $69,900 ARMLS
• 2023-02-27 Sold (MLS) $47,500 ARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-12-27 Price Changed $47,500 ARMLS
• 2022-12-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-11-11 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-10-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-10-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-10-08 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-09-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-09-01 Listed $49,900 ARMLS