24786 Pecan Dr · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1968 0.92 ac lot $44/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Alert! Rare value-add opportunity for investors, flippers looking for their next project. This fixer - upper offers great potential to renovate, increase value, and generate strong returns. With the right updates this property could be transformed into a profitable flip or long-term rental. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment. Property sold as is where is.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.93%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,577
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -59.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-11,153
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-15,342
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,856/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $99,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Investor Alert! Rare value-add opportunity for investors, flippers looking for their next project. This fixer - upper offers great potential to renovate, increase value, and generate strong returns. With the right updates this property could be transformed into a profitable flip or long-term rental. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment. Property sold as is where is.

15. 2026-04-17
    price $115,900 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Investor Alert! Rare value-add opportunity for investors, flippers looking for their next project. This fixer - upper offers great potential to renovate, increase value, and generate strong returns. With the right updates this property could be transformed into a profitable flip or long-term rental. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment. Property sold as is where is.

16. 2026-04-08
    status Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Investor Alert! Rare value-add opportunity for investors, flippers looking for their next project. This fixer - upper offers great potential to renovate, increase value, and generate strong returns. With the right updates this property could be transformed into a profitable flip or long-term rental. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment. Property sold as is where is.

17. 2026-03-31
    historical 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Investor Alert! Rare value-add opportunity for investors, flippers looking for their next project. This fixer - upper offers great potential to renovate, increase value, and generate strong returns. With the right updates this property could be transformed into a profitable flip or long-term rental. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment. Property sold as is where is.

18. 2026-03-18
    price $129,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Investor Alert! Rare value-add opportunity for investors, flippers looking for their next project. This fixer - upper offers great potential to renovate, increase value, and generate strong returns. With the right updates this property could be transformed into a profitable flip or long-term rental. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment. Property sold as is where is.

19. 2026-03-07
    listed $149,900 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Investor Alert! Rare value-add opportunity for investors, flippers looking for their next project. This fixer - upper offers great potential to renovate, increase value, and generate strong returns. With the right updates this property could be transformed into a profitable flip or long-term rental. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment. Property sold as is where is.

20. 2026-03-03
    soldstatus
21. 2026-03-03
    soldstatus
22. 2025-11-14
    soldstatus
23. 2025-11-14
    soldstatus
24. 2025-11-14
    soldstatus
25. 2025-11-12
    soldstatus
26. 2025-11-12
    soldstatus
27. 2022-01-25
    status Pending
28. 2022-01-14
    status Option Pending
29. 2022-01-13
    listed $140,000 Active
30. 2022-01-13
    historical
31. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,856 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,856 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,856
• − Insurance: −$5,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $115,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-01-13 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,856 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.