227 Biltmore Loop · Conroe, TX 77316

$285,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 2018 3,424 sqft lot $163/sqft · 21% below area Est $362k · 21% under $116/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

Key facts

• $116 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,037 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.74%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,339
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -21.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
169 Kinnerly Peak Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,891 (+8%)	4mo	$336,500	$178	63
288 Mallorn Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,743 (-0%)	18mo	$454,900	$261	61
304 Mallorn Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,722 (-1%)	18mo	$379,900	$221	59
308 Mallorn Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (-1%)	19mo	$430,900	$248	53
336 Water Tupelo Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,743 (-0%)	18mo	$389,900	$224	53
131 Greatwood Glen Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,966 (+12%)	13mo	$399,000	$203	52
211 Clementine Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,997 (+14%)	8mo	$354,000	$177	51
292 Mallorn Ln	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+2%)	18mo	$374,900	$210	51
337 Mallorn Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+2%)	22mo	$359,900	$202	49
122 Kinnerly Peak Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,963 (+12%)	14mo	$359,000	$183	47
340 Water Tupelo Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+2%)	18mo	$399,900	$224	41
252 Forest Heights Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,942 (+11%)	20mo	$425,000	$219	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-84,407
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-136,844
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$534 /mo · $6,409/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,865

Max offer price $194,037

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
623 Silver Pear Ct Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	0.38mi
1800 Central Pine St Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,590	$2.87	2d	69	0.68mi
900 New Day Ave Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,050	$1.67	16d	1	0.84mi
9199 Grand Lake Estates Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1595	$1,900	$1.19	24d	1	1.02mi
516 Shine Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,700	$1.57	7d	1	1.27mi
332 N Spotted Fern Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,200	$1.28	13d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-27
   price $285,000 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

2. 2026-03-06
   price $295,000 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

3. 2026-02-20
   price $299,990 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

4. 2026-02-02
   price $305,000 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

5. 2025-12-05
   status Active 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

6. 2025-12-05
   price $310,000 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

7. 2025-11-25
   historical 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

8. 2025-11-25
   listed $315,000 Active 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite Chesmar townhome in Woodforest! This "Haven" features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept living area on the first floor. With a game room and bedrooms upstairs, the property boasts quartz countertops, high ceilings, and no back neighbors. The backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities, while the front yard is beautifully landscaped. Enjoy stainless steel appliances, upgraded lighting, and pre-wiring for a home alarm system. Explore nearby schools, shops, restaurants, pools, and even a golf course. Don't miss out on this stunning property! All appliances included! NO Townhome HOA Fee in this Section!

9. 2018-08-28
   soldstatus Sold 766-char remark

   Show marketing remark (766 chars)

   Discover the HOTTEST master-planned community in Montgomery county -- WOODFOREST!! Residents enjoy GRAND AMENITIES -- Woodforest Golf Club, walking trail, tennis/basketball, Rec center, & parks/playgrounds. Only minutes to The Woodlands & Lake Conroe. 3 Beds, 2.5 Baths, 2 car garage, & open family room. The chef in the family will appreciate the gourmet QUARTZ ISLAND, breakfast bar, stainless appliance package including S/S side by side refrigerator. Upstairs living includes master suite w/ HUGE walk-in closet, spacious secondary bedrooms, & flex room. This home is LOADED w/ upgrades -- top load washer + dryer, COVERED patio, sprinkler system, alarm, & much more!! Zoned to CONROE ISD. Don't wait. .. call today for a private tour.

10. 2018-07-18
    status Pending 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Discover the HOTTEST master-planned community in Montgomery county -- WOODFOREST!! Residents enjoy GRAND AMENITIES -- Woodforest Golf Club, walking trail, tennis/basketball, Rec center, & parks/playgrounds. Only minutes to The Woodlands & Lake Conroe. 3 Beds, 2.5 Baths, 2 car garage, & open family room. The chef in the family will appreciate the gourmet QUARTZ ISLAND, breakfast bar, stainless appliance package including S/S side by side refrigerator. Upstairs living includes master suite w/ HUGE walk-in closet, spacious secondary bedrooms, & flex room. This home is LOADED w/ upgrades -- top load washer + dryer, COVERED patio, sprinkler system, alarm, & much more!! Zoned to CONROE ISD. Don't wait. .. call today for a private tour.

11. 2018-06-29
    price $191,640 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Discover the HOTTEST master-planned community in Montgomery county -- WOODFOREST!! Residents enjoy GRAND AMENITIES -- Woodforest Golf Club, walking trail, tennis/basketball, Rec center, & parks/playgrounds. Only minutes to The Woodlands & Lake Conroe. 3 Beds, 2.5 Baths, 2 car garage, & open family room. The chef in the family will appreciate the gourmet QUARTZ ISLAND, breakfast bar, stainless appliance package including S/S side by side refrigerator. Upstairs living includes master suite w/ HUGE walk-in closet, spacious secondary bedrooms, & flex room. This home is LOADED w/ upgrades -- top load washer + dryer, COVERED patio, sprinkler system, alarm, & much more!! Zoned to CONROE ISD. Don't wait. .. call today for a private tour.

12. 2018-04-13
    price $199,640 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Discover the HOTTEST master-planned community in Montgomery county -- WOODFOREST!! Residents enjoy GRAND AMENITIES -- Woodforest Golf Club, walking trail, tennis/basketball, Rec center, & parks/playgrounds. Only minutes to The Woodlands & Lake Conroe. 3 Beds, 2.5 Baths, 2 car garage, & open family room. The chef in the family will appreciate the gourmet QUARTZ ISLAND, breakfast bar, stainless appliance package including S/S side by side refrigerator. Upstairs living includes master suite w/ HUGE walk-in closet, spacious secondary bedrooms, & flex room. This home is LOADED w/ upgrades -- top load washer + dryer, COVERED patio, sprinkler system, alarm, & much more!! Zoned to CONROE ISD. Don't wait. .. call today for a private tour.

13. 2018-04-12
    listed $214,640 Active 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Discover the HOTTEST master-planned community in Montgomery county -- WOODFOREST!! Residents enjoy GRAND AMENITIES -- Woodforest Golf Club, walking trail, tennis/basketball, Rec center, & parks/playgrounds. Only minutes to The Woodlands & Lake Conroe. 3 Beds, 2.5 Baths, 2 car garage, & open family room. The chef in the family will appreciate the gourmet QUARTZ ISLAND, breakfast bar, stainless appliance package including S/S side by side refrigerator. Upstairs living includes master suite w/ HUGE walk-in closet, spacious secondary bedrooms, & flex room. This home is LOADED w/ upgrades -- top load washer + dryer, COVERED patio, sprinkler system, alarm, & much more!! Zoned to CONROE ISD. Don't wait. .. call today for a private tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,409 · $534/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,409 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$6,409
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$11,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-08-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-07-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-29 Price Changed $191,640 HARMLS
• 2018-04-13 Price Changed $199,640 HARMLS
• 2018-04-12 Listed $214,640 HARMLS

Property tax history

+34.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,409 · +109.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.