1022 Swamp Chestnut Loop · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$345,560

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,110 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Built 2025 6,960 sqft lot Est $348k · at est. $134/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Beautifully designed open floor plan perfect for modern living and entertaining. Boasting 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this home also includes a versatile flex space—ideal for a home office, playroom, or formal dining area to suit your lifestyle. The kitchen is a chef’s dream, complete with sleek quartz countertops, 42-inch cabinetry, and ample prep space for hosting or everyday meals. Retreat to the luxurious master suite, offering two oversized walk-in closets and a spa-inspired walk-in shower for ultimate comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• 6,960 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Villages Elementary of Lady Lake School (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 761 students, 61% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 837 students, 65% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,063/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,092 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,150
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
998 Swamp Chestnut Loop	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,110 (0%)	2mo	$322,990	$153	90
708 Sunshower Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,110 (0%)	9mo	$416,143	$197	79
744 Sunshower Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,938 (-8%)	1mo	$312,990	$162	70
858 Sunshower Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,281 (+8%)	4mo	$299,990	$132	68
862 Sunshower Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,417 (+14%)	0mo	$312,990	$129	64
716 Sunshower Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,417 (+14%)	9mo	$399,000	$165	43
1509 Trenton Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,989 (-6%)	11mo	$499,000	$251	42
349 Pacolet Ter	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,043 (-3%)	20mo	$495,000	$242	38
367 Troy Loop	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (-13%)	6mo	$399,900	$218	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-59,194
• Equity at exit: $51,524

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-45,999
• Equity at exit: $29,878

Cash invested: $96,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,183/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$134
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,193

Max offer price $330,717

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $17	+0% $-103	+5% $-222	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-224	+0% $-103	+5% $18	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $-15	base $-103	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,390
• Closing costs: $10,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1220 Turtle Island Rd Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	0.85mi
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $134 · $1,608/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   status Active
3. 2026-03-27
   price $345,560
4. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-16
   price $365,990
6. 2026-02-09
   price $377,990
7. 2025-11-22
   price $374,990
8. 2025-11-13
   listed $381,659 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,357
• − Property taxes: −$5,183
• − Insurance: −$1,728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,940
• − Management: −$2,940
• − HOA: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$10,053
• Taxable loss: −$7,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,694
• After-tax cash flow: $463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $345,560 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $365,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $377,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $374,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $381,659 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid