14520 Camino de la Luna #5 · San Diego, CA 92127

$254,849

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · Condo public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2003 $228/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * Deed Restricted Unit * * DO NOT CONTACT SDHC (San Diego Housing Commission) DIRECTLY. Buyer must meet income and qualifications guidelines. This charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath condominium in Cristamar is part of the San Diego Housing Commission's AFFORDABLE FOR-SALE HOUSING PROGRAM with 55-year resale restrictions. Located in the Santa Luz - Del Sur community with Poway Schools, features include a spacious living room and dining area, large kitchen with gas range, full-size in-unit laundry, private patio-balcony, and one-car detached garage. Some photos have been virtually staged.

Key facts

• $228 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2003

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO-BALCONY
• LARGE KITCHEN WITH GAS RANGE
• FULL-SIZE IN-UNIT LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $240k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Poway Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #317 of 517 in CA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($196k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $402 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $239,558 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 2.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $10,214
• Equity at exit: $76,017

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $62,857
• Equity at exit: $93,002

Cash invested: $71,358 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92127

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,336
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$228
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $254,849

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,712
• Closing costs: $7,645
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $228 · $2,736/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-21
   listed $254,849 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,937 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,509
• − Management: −$2,509
• − HOA: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$7,414
• Taxable loss: −$982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$236
• After-tax cash flow: $3,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -50.00%
• Median HH income: $102,903
• Composite: 27.12/100
• National rank: #7036
• State rank: #317 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Diego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4206

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Diego, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 1,397,612
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,555
• Household income: $195,520
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1105.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 32% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Other Indo-European 12% Chinese 6% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 417.8222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $254,849 SDMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,622 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.