2951 State Route 34b · Aurora, NY 13026

$325,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1900 0.34 ac lot $99/sqft · 36% below area Est $260k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Step into a piece of history that has been meticulously reborn for the modern lifestyle. This early 1800s residence underwent a total "down-to-the-studs" renovation, resulting in approximately 1,691 square feet of sophisticated living space where every corner feels intentional and new. The heart of the home centers around a gorgeous kitchen, featuring crisp cabinetry, sleek granite countertops, and premium stainless appliances. The open flow leads you into a family room anchored by a warm fireplace (insert required)—the perfect spot for chilly Finger Lakes evenings. For those who work from home, the dedicated office serves as a true showpiece, characterized by an elegant cof

Key facts

• New rear deck
• Gorgeous kitchen
• Level backyard

Tags

• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW REAR DECK
• LEVEL BACKYARD
• BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Composite siding; Wood siding; Block and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Corner lot; Rectangular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen; Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms including living spaces and office
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Galley kitchen; Home office; Full walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#530 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southern Cayuga Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $272,575 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,096
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: 24.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $166,344
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $498,482
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13026

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,788/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $295,190

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $325,000 Active 1606-char remark
18. 2026-04-08
    historical
19. 2025-12-08
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$5,788
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,617
• − Management: −$2,617
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$7,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $-202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Cayuga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627570
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,177
• Composite: 52.98/100
• National rank: #1524
• State rank: #214 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #9549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,703

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.77%
• Current HPI: 410.3875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $325,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $325,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,788 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.