713 Carol Lynn Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 482 Days on market

Built 1980 2,850 sqft lot $110/sqft · 60% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980
• Listed 482 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $224 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-882 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 482 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 482 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,099
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 59.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1118 Aster Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,413 (-3%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	66
807 Golf Ct	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,289 (-12%)	6mo	$159,900	$124	65
1934 Robcrest Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (-4%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	64
1931 Eastmont Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-1%)	11mo	$245,000	$170	62
803 Hackberry St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,649 (+13%)	4mo	$269,000	$163	61
818 Overland St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+12%)	13mo	$175,000	$108	51
1923 Tommy Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (+9%)	18mo	$259,990	$164	50
1702 Pecan Ln	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,287 (-12%)	20mo	$185,000	$144	49
914 Overland St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,337 (-8%)	20mo	$229,900	$172	48
2003 5th St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+14%)	14mo	$210,000	$126	47
1931 Skipwood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+15%)	20mo	$259,000	$155	28
1407 Ash Oak Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+12%)	20mo	$250,000	$154	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,788
• Equity at exit: $42,099

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $32,085
• Equity at exit: $47,244

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,747/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,436

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	20d	1	1.22mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	12d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 482 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 481 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 480 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 479 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 477 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 473 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 471 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 468 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 467 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 466 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 465 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 464 DOM
13. 2026-03-09
    price $160,000
14. 2025-03-01
    price $165,000
15. 2025-02-21
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2025-02-03
    historical
17. 2025-01-25
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2025-01-02
    historical $1,600
19. 2024-12-19
    listed $1,600
20. 2024-12-09
    historical $1,600
21. 2024-10-28
    listed $1,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,747
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $3,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9900.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2024-12-09 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,747 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.