8428 Regal Way · Ellenton, FL 34221

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 160 Days on market

Built 2004 5,184 sqft lot Est $184k · at est. $181/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. WHAT A GEM! This 2 bedroom/2 bath abode is a Florida Gulf Coast lovers’ MUST SEE! Boasting an abundance of natural light shining throughout, this 1080 sf beauty is conveniently located near I-75 in the premier 55+ Imperial Lakes community close to the world-famous gulf beaches, minutes from the Factory Outlet Mall and a plethora of restaurants. This beautiful home welcomes you with a lovely yard complete with well-maintained landscaping and a serene front porch perfect for relaxing in the warm Florida sunshine. Proceeding through the inviting entrance, you are greeted by a spacious foyer into a cozy, open floor plan with a spacious kitchen ove

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious kitchen
• Spacious foyer

Tags

• 55+ IMPERIAL LAKES COMMUNITY
• WELL-MAINTAINED LANDSCAPING
• SERENE FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS FOYER
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, Manufactured Home; Lot about 0.12 acres (approximately 0 to less than 1/4 acre); Road surface: Asphalt; Zoning: RSMH4.5; Unfurnished; Living area and building area reported in public records
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees listed as $2,176
• HOA & community: HOA: Imperial Lakes Manager; Monthly HOA approximately $181.33 (quarterly fee noted as $544); HOA includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, management, recreational facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, pickleball court(s), shuffleboard court; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), max pet weight ~25 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Canal/lake irrigation water source; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; South-facing; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage; Tennis court(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $179k implies a 588% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.01%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8402 Princess Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-0%)	11mo	$184,000	$171	76
8505 Monarch Pl	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,168 (+8%)	3mo	$110,000	$94	71
8520 Imperial Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+6%)	12mo	$194,000	$170	66
8524 Imperial Cir #8524	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	15mo	$160,000	$139	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,589
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,835
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $886/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$181
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,958	$1.87	23d	99	0.74mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,491	$2.85	1d	21	0.95mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	21d	1	0.99mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	21d	1	1.00mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	23d	1	1.07mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,962	$1.93	3d	50	1.09mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	1.27mi
6249 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,890	$1.57	14d	1	1.33mi
6256 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,845	$1.52	14d	1	1.36mi
6334 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,795	$1.45	3d	1	1.37mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	23d	1	1.37mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $181 · $2,172/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   price $179,000
2. 2025-12-19
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2004-07-14
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $886 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$599/yr (+$50/mo · 67.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$886
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − HOA: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $2,326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$558
• After-tax cash flow: $4,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+588.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $886 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.