612 Amberjack Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$427,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1981 9,147 sqft lot $198/sqft · 5% below area Est $510k · 16% under $138/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Come and See!!

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Eat in kitchen
• Vaulted family room

Tags

• BAY POINT GATED COMMUNITY
• GOLF AND MARINA COMMUNITY
• VAULTED FAMILY ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $427k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $374k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $374k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,740/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $427k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,017 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $510,348
• List price: $427,000
• Delta: -16.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4332 Magnolia Beach Rd	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,196 (+2%)	9mo	$447,000	$204	70
4837 Stellata Ln	0.46mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,156 (0%)	9mo	$390,000	$181	64
130 Marlin Cir	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,322 (+8%)	18mo	$565,000	$243	62
2419 Grandiflora Blvd	0.37mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,156 (0%)	24mo	$449,900	$209	56
1110 Redfish Cir	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,415 (+12%)	10mo	$1,035,000	$429	52
4633 Delwood Park Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,939 (-10%)	21mo	$435,000	$224	50
1310 Pompano Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,019 (-6%)	24mo	$700,000	$347	42
2406 Pelican Bay Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,263 (+5%)	24mo	$498,000	$220	41
1028 Barracuda Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,303 (+7%)	14mo	$490,000	$213	37
115 Legend Lakes Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,400 (+11%)	13mo	$625,000	$260	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-61,886
• Equity at exit: $63,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-49,243
• Equity at exit: $36,919

Cash invested: $119,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,239
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,095/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$138
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,561

Max offer price $427,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,750
• Closing costs: $12,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2400 Grandiflora Blvd #606 Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	1485	$2,500	$1.68	20d	1	0.54mi
4050 Marriott Dr Unit 1510830P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$6,212	$4.12	13d	1	0.98mi
5402 Pinetree Ave Unit 1447170P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$6,216	$3.83	20d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $138 · $1,656/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $427,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $427,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $427,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $427,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $427,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $427,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $427,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $427,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $427,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $427,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $427,000 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $427,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $427,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $427,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $427,000 Active 200 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $427,000 Active 199 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $427,000 Active 198 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    status Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Possible In-Law quarters. Come and See!!

19. 2026-04-15
    status Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Possible In-Law quarters. Come and See!!

20. 2026-04-08
    historical Active Under Contract 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Possible In-Law quarters. Come and See!!

21. 2026-04-01
    price $427,000 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Possible In-Law quarters. Come and See!!

22. 2026-04-01
    price $427,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Possible In-Law quarters. Come and See!!

23. 2025-11-12
    listed $430,000 Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Possible In-Law quarters. Come and See!!

24. 2025-11-12
    listed $430,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Needs TLC, Investment Opportunity awaits in sought after Bay Point Gated Community. This spacious home offers endless potential to customize your perfect coastal dream home getaway. Home is Located in the premier golf and marina community for your convenience and enjoyment. This home is 2100+ square feet featuring nicely sized vaulted family room with floor to ceiling wood burning fireplace and sliders leading to the back yard. Separate Dining Room for family dinners or the buyer who loves to entertain. The eat in kitchen also has sliders to the back yard. Bedrooms are nicely sized. The Master Bedroom with plenty of closet space and also has a slider leading to back yard. Master Bath with a sunk in tub great for a relaxing bubble bath. Possible In-Law quarters. Come and See!!

25. 2021-12-14
    historical
26. 2021-12-14
    historical
27. 2021-12-14
    historical
28. 2021-12-14
    historical
29. 2021-12-09
    historical
30. 2009-07-01
    listed $285,000
31. 2009-02-27
    soldstatus $259,900
32. 2008-12-08
    listed $269,900
33. 2008-08-25
    listed $325,000
34. 2006-09-14
    listed $479,900
35. 2005-05-27
    listed $485,000
36. 2000-03-09
    soldstatus $165,000
37. 2000-03-01
    soldstatus $160,000
38. 1999-09-08
    listed $169,000
39. 1999-04-01
    listed $186,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,095 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,544 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: +$449/yr (+$37/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,919
• − Property taxes: −$3,095
• − Insurance: −$2,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,591
• − Management: −$3,591
• − HOA: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$12,422
• Taxable loss: −$5,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,326
• After-tax cash flow: $3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+128.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $427,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $427,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $430,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $430,000 ECAR
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2009-07-01 Listed $285,000 CPARMLS
• 2009-02-27 Sold (MLS) $259,900 CPARMLS
• 2008-12-08 Listed $269,900 CPARMLS
• 2008-08-25 Listed $325,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-09-14 Listed $479,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-05-27 Listed $485,000 CPARMLS
• 2000-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-01 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CPARMLS
• 1999-09-08 Listed $169,000 CPARMLS
• 1999-04-01 Listed $186,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,095 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.