3023 Youpon Glen Way · Fresno, TX 77545

$282,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,061 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2006 6,403 sqft lot Est $373k · 24% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3,061 sq. ft. home in the sought-after Winfield Lakes community. This spacious two-story layout features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, perfectly designed for modern living. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor, offering a private retreat with an en-suite bath. Upstairs, you will find three generously sized secondary bedrooms and a massive game room ideal for entertainment. The home boasts a classic stone and brick exterior, a cozy fireplace, and an attached two-car garage. Residents enjoy fantastic neighborhood amenities including scenic lakes, trails, and a community pool, all with quick access to Hwy 288 and Pearland shopping. Zoned to highly rated Fort

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Massive game room
• En-suite bath

Tags

• WINFIELD LAKES COMMUNITY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• MASSIVE GAME ROOM
• STONE AND BRICK EXTERIOR
• COZY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Windfield Lakes HOA with an annual fee of $575

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10x10); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (each approx. 10x10); One bedroom on the second floor (approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $282k).
• Recommended offer: $278k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.4% in Fresno — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Hightower H S (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 2,535 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 35% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,770 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.46%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,442
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3023 Youpon Glen Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	3,073 (+0%)	1mo	$282,000	$92	97
2810 Straight Elm St	0.18mi	4/3.0	3,187 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$110	84
2803 Darby Brook Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,756 (-10%)	3mo	$240,000	$87	72
2618 Balsam Ridge Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,764 (-10%)	1mo	$300,000	$109	68
2343 Bright Sunrise Trl	0.54mi	4/2.5	3,195 (+4%)	1mo	$359,990	$113	65
2723 Fawn Mountain Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,785 (-9%)	0mo	$359,000	$129	63
2002 Casterly Ct	0.49mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,921 (-5%)	3mo	$360,000	$123	60
2443 Inlet Ct	0.37mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,750 (-10%)	3mo	$424,990	$155	56
3011 Matthew Aaron Ct	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,848 (-7%)	2mo	$395,000	$139	53
2050 Bravos Manor Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,658 (-13%)	3mo	$369,990	$139	53
2531 Tucker Crk	0.36mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,626 (-14%)	3mo	$319,900	$122	50
1822 Lansing Cove Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,696 (-12%)	1mo	$299,786	$111	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-31,912
• Equity at exit: $55,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-37,288
• Equity at exit: $47,260

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$608 /mo · $7,295/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,851

Max offer price $282,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	43d	1	0.40mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	20d	1	0.45mi
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	43d	1	0.74mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	43d	1	0.82mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	5d	1	0.93mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	20d	1	0.97mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	19d	1	1.02mi
3806 Teal Maple Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	3.5	2318	$2,146	$0.93	2d	1	1.22mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	20d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-28
   price $282,000
4. 2026-04-16
   listed $330,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,295 · $608/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,295 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$7,295
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,934
• − Management: −$2,934
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$2,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$595
• After-tax cash flow: $2,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $282,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $330,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,295 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.