430 Mary Erna Dr · Fairburn, GA 30213

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1978 0.37 ac lot $189/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the one you’ve been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Fairburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#291 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 531 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $269k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,396 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,458
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -4.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 Mary Erna Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,426 (0%)	0mo	$270,000	$189	100
600 Mary Erna Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+3%)	13mo	$275,000	$188	65
7235 Magnolia Ln	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,423 (-0%)	13mo	$325,000	$228	63
620 Blue Flag Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	7mo	$264,900	$189	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,605
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-55,925
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30213

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $255,375

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6460 Lake Esther Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	43d	1	0.35mi
6460 Lake Esther Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	1300	$1,997	$1.54	10d	1	0.35mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	20d	1	1.20mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	5d	1	1.20mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	43d	1	1.20mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	24d	1	1.20mi
200 Dodd St Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,685	$1.30	43d	1	1.23mi
152 Rivertown Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,500	$2.26	21d	1	1.24mi
365 Elder St Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1084	$1,625	$1.50	24d	1	1.26mi
8317 Hunters Grove Rd Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1821	$5,500	$3.02	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This is the one you've been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

2. 2026-05-15
   status Under Contract 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This is the one you've been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

3. 2026-05-07
   status Active 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This is the one you've been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

4. 2026-05-07
   status Back On Market 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This is the one you've been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

5. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   This is the one you’ve been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

6. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   This is the one you’ve been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

7. 2026-04-08
   status Under Contract 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   This is the one you’ve been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

8. 2026-04-08
   status Pending 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   This is the one you’ve been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

9. 2026-03-30
   listed $269,000 Active 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This is the one you've been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

10. 2026-03-30
    listed $269,000 New 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    This is the one you've been waiting for. Completely remodeled and move-in ready with a fresh, modern feel from the moment you walk in. Clean lines, updated finishes, and a warm, inviting layout make it easy to picture yourself right at home.

11. 2025-12-17
    soldstatus $156,000
12. 2025-09-03
    historical
13. 2025-07-24
    listed $224,900 Active
14. 1995-11-08
    soldstatus $75,900
15. 1979-02-22
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$5,755
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,381
• After-tax cash flow: $251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fairburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #15939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairburn, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 50,621
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 50,621
• Household income: $94,125
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1025.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.66%
• Current HPI: 235.9372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+407.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — FMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $269,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $269,000 FMLS
• 2025-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $224,900 FMLS
• 1995-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records
• 1979-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-16.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $66 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.