8450 E Old Spanish Trl #157 · Tucson, AZ 85710

$112,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Condo · 73 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $146/sqft · at area comps Est $117k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This newly renovated first-floor condo is ready for easy move-in! Enjoy an open concept living space with new flooring throughout, new cabinets and countertops in the kitchen and bathroom, and a brand-new AC installed in 2025! Relax outside with easy access to the beautiful, HOA-maintained pool. Two on-site laundry facilities are also available.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New cabinets
• Hoa maintained pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• BRAND NEW AC
• HOA MAINTAINED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $112k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $778 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,381 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,991
• List price: $112,500
• Delta: -3.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-30,296
• Equity at exit: $16,774

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-45,232
• Equity at exit: $9,727

Cash invested: $31,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85710

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$141 /mo · $1,688/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$162
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $87,879

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,125
• Closing costs: $3,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8450 E Old Spanish Trl Unit 258 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	768	$900	$1.17	24d	1	0.03mi
8490 E Old Spanish Trl Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$898	$1.50	2d	3	0.12mi
8550 E Old Spanish Trl Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	918	$1,143	$1.25	3d	1	0.19mi
8550 E Old Spanish Trl Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	643	$995	$1.55	24d	1	0.19mi
8601 E Old Spanish Trl Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$904	$1.17	3d	20	0.22mi
8580 E Old Spanish Trl Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	918	$1,195	$1.30	24d	1	0.24mi
8477 E Broadway Blvd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$649	$0.96	3d	11	0.24mi
8600 E Old Spanish Trl Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	891	$1,021	$1.15	2d	20	0.29mi
201 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	740	$975	$1.32	3d	1	0.40mi
201 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	740	$875	$1.18	44d	1	0.40mi
8750 E Cooper St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	44d	1	0.42mi
8750 E Cooper St Unit COP8750-102 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	12d	1	0.42mi
8750 E Cooper St Unit COP8750-118 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$750	$1.15	20d	1	0.42mi
550 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,006	$1.18	2d	11	0.45mi
207 N Maguire Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$1,007	$1.29	2d	12	0.53mi
8880 E Broadway Blvd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	637	$750	$1.18	3d	23	0.59mi
7887 E Uhl St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,149	$1.28	12d	1	0.68mi
7887 E Uhl St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	44d	1	0.68mi
200 S Pantano Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$890	$1.15	2d	8	0.71mi
8535 E Seabury Ct Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	966	$1,400	$1.45	14d	1	0.77mi
7730 E Broadway Blvd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	666	$1,020	$1.53	2d	45	0.81mi
550 N Pantano Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$807	$1.21	2d	17	0.81mi
9009 E Broadway Blvd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1122	$1,432	$1.28	2d	4	0.82mi
8485 E 22nd St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	696	$895	$1.29	2d	21	0.83mi
600 N Pantano Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	759	$1,073	$1.41	21d	1	0.87mi
600 N Pantano Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	759	$1,130	$1.49	24d	1	0.87mi
716 N Hayden Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,495	$1.34	3d	1	0.88mi
7924 E Colette Cir #83 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	995	$1,400	$1.41	2d	1	0.89mi
7944 E Colette Cir Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	854	$995	$1.17	24d	1	0.97mi
7952 E Colette Cir Unit 164 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	955	$1,400	$1.47	44d	1	0.98mi
9159 E Broadway Blvd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,645	$1.56	3d	1	1.00mi
8550 E Speedway Blvd Unit TBD Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	624	$624	$1.00	44d	1	1.02mi
8550 E Speedway Blvd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	864	$1,099	$1.27	44d	1	1.08mi
8110 E Speedway Blvd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	694	$645	$0.93	2d	17	1.11mi
1050 N Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	620	$860	$1.39	2d	6	1.12mi
7531 E Terrace Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,200	$1.16	14d	1	1.16mi
9190 E Old Spanish Trl Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,738	$1.58	21d	1	1.17mi
801 S Prudence Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	581	$957	$1.65	3d	32	1.17mi
625 S Prudence Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,424	$1.36	17d	2	1.17mi
8080 E Speedway Blvd Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	660	$875	$1.33	44d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,500 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,500 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,500 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,500 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,500 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $112,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,500 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $112,500 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $112,500 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,500 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,500 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,500 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,500 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $112,500 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This newly renovated first-floor condo is ready for easy move-in! Enjoy an open concept living space with new flooring throughout, new cabinets and countertops in the kitchen and bathroom, and a brand-new AC installed in 2025! Relax outside with easy access to the beautiful, HOA-maintained pool. Two on-site laundry facilities are also available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,302
• − Property taxes: −$1,688
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − HOA: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$3,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$949
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly renovated first-floor condo is move-in ready with new flooring, cabinets, countertops, and a new AC. Enhance curb appeal and add value with landscaping and painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — refreshes the interior and exterior
• Both new flooring — improves aesthetics and durability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes the interior and exterior ↑
• Both new flooring — improves aesthetics and durability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 56,125
• Household income: $57,175
• Rent vs Own: 45.5% rent · 54.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3888.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.68%
• Current HPI: 291.8039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $112,500 MLSSAZ