869 Desoto St · St. Paul, MN 55130

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1889 3,267 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tastefully remodeled home. Cute as a button! Charming front porch. Large kitchen w/ss appliances, new cabinetry and counter tops. Owners suite w/full bath. Fenced back yard. Move in ready!!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Private backyard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PORCH
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 8X8 STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with other surface
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential one-story home; Entry level on main; French doors; Main floor primary bedroom
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Asphalt roof; Built area includes main finished area of 1,071 and total building area of 1,271
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Vinyl exterior; Storage shed; Vinyl and wood fencing; City street frontage; Lot approximately 26 x 132

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Main floor full bath(s)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Informal dining area; French doors; Main floor primary bedroom; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry sink; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,216/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 818% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,564
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $31,624
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55130

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,158/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 9th St E St Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	978	$2,495	$2.55	3d	3	0.98mi
250 6th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,868	$2.93	1d	16	1.22mi
101 10th St E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,051	$2.31	2d	25	1.27mi
240 5th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,770	$2.92	2d	10	1.28mi
333 Sibley St Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1358	$2,577	$1.90	10d	10	1.32mi
141 4th St E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$2,420	$2.98	20d	20	1.41mi
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$3,467	$2.41	1d	22	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $199,900 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,900 Contingent - Inspection 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 656-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,158 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,158 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,158
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $3,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,775
• Household income: $54,130
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 818.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 47% Black 22% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Swedish 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Philippines, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 37% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.12%
• Current HPI: 281.2507
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+292.7% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-16 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-31 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-18 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-14 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-12 Listed $119,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-26 Sold (MLS) $48,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-08 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-31 Listed $49,203 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2006-03-13 Sold (MLS) $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-20 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-27 Listed $174,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-16 Sold (MLS) $47,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-17 Listed $47,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-05 Listed $47,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-02-04 Listed $49,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-08-03 Listed $50,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,158 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.