11443 Underwood St · Willis, TX 77318

$156,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,400 sqft lot $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable opportunity to finish a home your way-ideal for first-time buyers, investors or anyone looking to build equity with their own design choices. This partially finished home is ready for your personal touch and offers an affordable path to homeownership or a great addition to your investment portfolio. Construction has been taken to the sheetrock stage with cabinets already in place—leaving the fun part to you. Choose your own flooring, paint colors, fixtures, tile, and countertops to create a home that reflects your style. Home is being sold AS-IS ONLY-no additional work will be done! Great investor special or handyman project. Walnut Cove residents enjoy community amenities including a pool, boat launch, and picnic areas with new grills and tables, all while benefiting from low property taxes. The adjacent lot is also available for purchase—perfect if you’d like extra yard space, a future garage, or even a pool.

Key facts

• 2,400 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained pool
• HOA & community: Part of Walnut Cove POA; Quarterly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, picnic area, sport/basketball courts, boat dock and ramp, meeting/party room

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction — never lived in; Under construction; One entry level listed; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Wood siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Paved driveway; Private yard; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second floor) — 13 x 11; Bedroom (second floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (second floor) — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom (second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Quartz counters; Tub with shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor) — 10 x 6

🏗️ New construction. The $156,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $157,613.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $157k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,546 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.68%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,613
• List price: $156,900
• Delta: -0.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12534 Andwood St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	1mo	$185,000	$132	89
8685 Sassafras St	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	5mo	$130,000	$96	87
10176 Barberry St	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	3mo	$127,500	$94	87
10174 Barberry St	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	7mo	$150,000	$111	84
9792 Black Gum	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	7mo	$150,000	$111	84
8687 Sassafras St	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	8mo	$130,000	$96	84
10196 Barberry St	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	6mo	$150,000	$111	84
11519 Persimmon St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,196 (-12%)	3mo	$65,000	$54	70
12912 Lake Conroe Bay Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-6%)	1mo	$200,000	$157	60
12889 Point Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	1mo	$385,000	$273	59
9774 Arbor Oak	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	3mo	$195,000	$129	51
15031 Conroe Bay Blvd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+14%)	5mo	$225,900	$146	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,894
• Equity at exit: $23,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,722
• Equity at exit: $13,627

Cash invested: $44,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$827
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$197 /mo · $2,364/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,498

Max offer price $157,613

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,403
• Closing costs: $4,728
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.04mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	43d	1	0.05mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	43d	1	0.05mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	2d	1	0.19mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.20mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	0.90mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	3d	1	0.93mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.94mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $156,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-10
    historical $160,000 1024-char remark
15. 2026-04-21
    soldstatus Closed 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Affordable opportunity to finish a home your way-ideal for first-time buyers, investors or anyone looking to build equity with their own design choices. This partially finished home is ready for your personal touch and offers an affordable path to homeownership or a great addition to your investment portfolio. Construction has been taken to the sheetrock stage with cabinets already in place—leaving the fun part to you. Choose your own flooring, paint colors, fixtures, tile, and countertops to create a home that reflects your style. Home is being sold AS-IS ONLY-no additional work will be done! Great investor special or handyman project. Walnut Cove residents enjoy community amenities including a pool, boat launch, and picnic areas with new grills and tables, all while benefiting from low property taxes. The adjacent lot is also available for purchase—perfect if you’d like extra yard space, a future garage, or even a pool.

16. 2026-04-11
    status Pending 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Affordable opportunity to finish a home your way-ideal for first-time buyers, investors or anyone looking to build equity with their own design choices. This partially finished home is ready for your personal touch and offers an affordable path to homeownership or a great addition to your investment portfolio. Construction has been taken to the sheetrock stage with cabinets already in place—leaving the fun part to you. Choose your own flooring, paint colors, fixtures, tile, and countertops to create a home that reflects your style. Home is being sold AS-IS ONLY-no additional work will be done! Great investor special or handyman project. Walnut Cove residents enjoy community amenities including a pool, boat launch, and picnic areas with new grills and tables, all while benefiting from low property taxes. The adjacent lot is also available for purchase—perfect if you’d like extra yard space, a future garage, or even a pool.

17. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Affordable opportunity to finish a home your way-ideal for first-time buyers, investors or anyone looking to build equity with their own design choices. This partially finished home is ready for your personal touch and offers an affordable path to homeownership or a great addition to your investment portfolio. Construction has been taken to the sheetrock stage with cabinets already in place—leaving the fun part to you. Choose your own flooring, paint colors, fixtures, tile, and countertops to create a home that reflects your style. Home is being sold AS-IS ONLY-no additional work will be done! Great investor special or handyman project. Walnut Cove residents enjoy community amenities including a pool, boat launch, and picnic areas with new grills and tables, all while benefiting from low property taxes. The adjacent lot is also available for purchase—perfect if you’d like extra yard space, a future garage, or even a pool.

18. 2026-03-30
    price $89,000 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Affordable opportunity to finish a home your way-ideal for first-time buyers, investors or anyone looking to build equity with their own design choices. This partially finished home is ready for your personal touch and offers an affordable path to homeownership or a great addition to your investment portfolio. Construction has been taken to the sheetrock stage with cabinets already in place—leaving the fun part to you. Choose your own flooring, paint colors, fixtures, tile, and countertops to create a home that reflects your style. Home is being sold AS-IS ONLY-no additional work will be done! Great investor special or handyman project. Walnut Cove residents enjoy community amenities including a pool, boat launch, and picnic areas with new grills and tables, all while benefiting from low property taxes. The adjacent lot is also available for purchase—perfect if you’d like extra yard space, a future garage, or even a pool.

19. 2026-03-20
    price $99,000 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Affordable opportunity to finish a home your way-ideal for first-time buyers, investors or anyone looking to build equity with their own design choices. This partially finished home is ready for your personal touch and offers an affordable path to homeownership or a great addition to your investment portfolio. Construction has been taken to the sheetrock stage with cabinets already in place—leaving the fun part to you. Choose your own flooring, paint colors, fixtures, tile, and countertops to create a home that reflects your style. Home is being sold AS-IS ONLY-no additional work will be done! Great investor special or handyman project. Walnut Cove residents enjoy community amenities including a pool, boat launch, and picnic areas with new grills and tables, all while benefiting from low property taxes. The adjacent lot is also available for purchase—perfect if you’d like extra yard space, a future garage, or even a pool.

20. 2026-03-10
    listed $120,000 Active 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Affordable opportunity to finish a home your way-ideal for first-time buyers, investors or anyone looking to build equity with their own design choices. This partially finished home is ready for your personal touch and offers an affordable path to homeownership or a great addition to your investment portfolio. Construction has been taken to the sheetrock stage with cabinets already in place—leaving the fun part to you. Choose your own flooring, paint colors, fixtures, tile, and countertops to create a home that reflects your style. Home is being sold AS-IS ONLY-no additional work will be done! Great investor special or handyman project. Walnut Cove residents enjoy community amenities including a pool, boat launch, and picnic areas with new grills and tables, all while benefiting from low property taxes. The adjacent lot is also available for purchase—perfect if you’d like extra yard space, a future garage, or even a pool.

21. 2024-05-23
    historical
22. 2024-05-14
    price $202,400
23. 2024-05-14
    price $202,500
24. 2024-04-04
    listed $204,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,829
• − Property taxes: −$2,364
• − Insurance: −$1,586
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$4,585
• Taxable income: $159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready, brand-new construction home in a growing community near Lake Conroe offers modern comfort and stylish finishes. With no repairs needed and excellent condition, it's an ideal investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior paint touch-up — Maintains fresh look and value
• Both Add smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-up — Maintains fresh look and value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $156,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Coming Soon $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $202,400 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $202,500 HARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed $204,900 HARMLS