650 E Busby Dr #94 · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$85,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured · 121 Days on market

Built 2010 Average condition 5,445 sqft lot $47/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,445 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2010

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.36%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,986
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -57.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Valerie Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,963 (+10%)	2mo	$215,000	$110	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $34,468
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $78,561
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
499 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0	1163	$1,699	$1.46	1d	5	0.43mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-02-26
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2026-02-17
    listed $85,000 Active
19. 2025-12-04
    historical
20. 2025-09-03
    price $90,000
21. 2025-06-17
    price $99,900
22. 2024-10-22
    price $115,000
23. 2024-09-05
    listed $129,000 Active
24. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus $85,000 Closed
25. 2021-04-27
    status Pending
26. 2021-03-26
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
27. 2021-02-13
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $9,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,227
• After-tax cash flow: $7,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A mobile home with average condition, requiring minor repairs and updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Slight discoloration
• Minor interior paint — Some wear
• Minor kitchen appliances — Dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace worn curtains — Improves aesthetics
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Slight discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen appliances · Dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace worn curtains — Improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $85,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-17 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $85,000 ARMLS
• 2021-04-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-03-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-02-13 Listed $85,000 ARMLS