430 W Water St · Jasper, TX 75951

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

0.28 ac lot $74/sqft · at area comps Est $96k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering plenty of space and comfort! Inside you'll find both a living room and den, perfect for entertaining guests, relaxing with family, or creating a home office or hobby space. The updated kitchen features modern touches and great functionality for everyday living. Outside, the back patio opens up to a beautifully manicured yard. An attached carport plus a detached garage, providing ample parking, storage, or workshop potential. This home combines character, versatility, and practicality—making it a wonderful place to call home!

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Updated kitchen
• Manicured yard

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BACK PATIO
• MANICURED YARD
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.17%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,114
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -1.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 W Water St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,286 (0%)	0mo	$95,000	$74	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $15,929
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $54,268
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,450/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
469 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	13d	1	0.30mi
509 N Peachtree St Jasper, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	0.33mi
209 Cavin St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1418	$1,300	$0.92	19d	1	0.37mi
816 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1270	$1,095	$0.86	13d	1	0.44mi
801 W Gibson St Unit 108 Jasper, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	19d	1	1.23mi
801 W Gibson St Unit 208 Jasper, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$900	$1.00	19d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on marketlisting id $95,000 Pending 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $95,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $95,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-03-23
    listed $95,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Charming and inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering plenty of space and comfort! Inside you'll find both a living room and den, perfect for entertaining guests, relaxing with family, or creating a home office or hobby space. The updated kitchen features modern touches and great functionality for everyday living. Outside, the back patio opens up to a beautifully manicured yard. An attached carport plus a detached garage, providing ample parking, storage, or workshop potential. This home combines character, versatility, and practicality—making it a wonderful place to call home!

11. 2026-03-18
    listed $95,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Charming and inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering plenty of space and comfort! Inside you'll find both a living room and den, perfect for entertaining guests, relaxing with family, or creating a home office or hobby space. The updated kitchen features modern touches and great functionality for everyday living. Outside, the back patio opens up to a beautifully manicured yard. An attached carport plus a detached garage, providing ample parking, storage, or workshop potential. This home combines character, versatility, and practicality—making it a wonderful place to call home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,450 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,450
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $4,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $95,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,450 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.