1338 Hicks Rd · Jefferson City, TN 37760

$90,700

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,420 sqft · Other public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1980 0.90 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fabulous opportunity for a fix and flip or long term hold renovation project. Home was a duplex and has been single family for many years. Needs complete re-do. Lots of space and large lot. See it today. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

Key facts

• 0.9 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 69 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water available; Sewer available / Septic tank
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; One level
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Slab foundation; Built as a duplex
• Exterior features: No exterior features listed; Composition/Shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $91k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.5% in Jefferson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#52 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Jefferson County (rural): math 25% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #80 of 139 in TN (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #496 of 952 statewide, top 55%, 433 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (math 24% / reading 23%, grade F, #162 of 333 statewide, top 50%, 586 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson Co High School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #145 of 332 statewide, top 44%, 2,054 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 254 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $627 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $91k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,258 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.93%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $22,945
• Equity at exit: $13,524

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $68,454
• Equity at exit: $7,842

Cash invested: $25,396 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37760

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$476
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $946/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $90,700

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,675
• Closing costs: $2,721
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,700 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,700 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,700 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,700 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,700 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,700 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,700 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,700 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,700 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,700 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,700 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $90,700 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $103,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $103,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $103,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $103,000 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-23
    price $103,000
20. 2026-03-24
    listed $127,200 Active
21. 2022-09-29
    price $87,300
22. 2022-09-14
    price $101,100
23. 2022-08-24
    price $123,400
24. 1991-09-24
    soldstatus $37,000
25. 1991-05-16
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,081
• − Property taxes: −$946
• − Insurance: −$454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$2,639
• Taxable income: $5,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $5,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 4702100
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,074
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8204
• State rank: #80 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jefferson City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #7592

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson City, TN
• County: Jefferson County · 13,253 people
• City population: 13,253
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• Population (ZIP): 13,253
• Household income: $66,190
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 411.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,862 people
• By 2030: 58,186 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 60,025 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 60,442 · +6.3%
• By 2075: 59,211 · +4.1%
• By 2100: 55,326 · -2.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.4% · R 81.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+59.3 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+50.1 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.66%
• Current HPI: 304.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+128.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $103,000 GCAR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $127,200 GCAR
• 2022-09-29 Price Changed $87,300 GCAR
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $101,100 GCAR
• 2022-08-24 Price Changed $123,400 GCAR
• 1991-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $946 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.